Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Monday 3/16

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/16/2020

We have another dry and warm day coming up. Partly cloudy sky remains in Mondays forecast, though I expect to see fewer clouds than yesterday, and the cloud forecast getting closer to few or the mostly sunny line. We didn’t see winds mixings down to mountain top elevations yesterday, 12,000ft winds have increased over the last few hours and we again have the chance for upper elevation winds to reach into the 30’s today. Otherwise expect another day of calm conditions. High temperatures on Tuesday increase another few degrees, but increasing cloud cover may help keep a lid on temperatures getting two crazy.

The mid to late weak weather will come from the low-pressure system moving from the California Coast, up through the desert Southwest and eventually through Colorado. Precipitation looks to start late on Wednesday and could continue through Friday. Snow totals are unsure at the moment and those estimates will be getting dialed in soon.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 40 to 44
    Winds/Direction: 2 to 12/WSW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 23 to 27
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/SW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 42 to 46
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/SW
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Northern Ruby Range

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 03/15/2020
Name: Zach Kinler & Evan Ross
Aspect: North, North East, East
Elevation: 9,000-12,400′

Avalanches: D1.5 slab avalanche Augusta Mt. SE 12,400′. Estimated 3/14 early AM.
D1.5 Wind Slab in Coon Basin SE 11.800′ , just below the ridge. Estimated 3/14 early AM.
3x D1 Wet Loose avalanches on an East aspect 10,000′

Weather: Partly Cloudy, Calm winds up to ridgeline in the am, light SW winds in the afternoon. Temps remained below freezing in the alpine while areas near and below treeline warmed above freezing.

Snowpack: 4-5″ of recently settled snow from late Fri/early Sat. The newest snow was bonding well with the old interface which was 2-4 mm graupel. No wind slab issues encountered on leeward slopes. Northerly slopes above stayed dry down to our observed elevation of 10,500ft on that aspect. East aspects 11-12K were slightly moist with no wet loose activity while below 11K had enough moisture to initiate rollerballs and a few small wet loose slides from steep, rocky terrain. Southerly aspects were moist with rollerballs.

 

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Sunday 3/15

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/15/2020

Here we go, it’s going to be a beautiful day to get outside. 11,000ft temperatures will rise to near 40, and low valleys like Crested Butte and Gunnison will be even warmer of course. Winds on the high peaks could get into the 20-30mph range, but those winds don’t look to mix down to lower elevations, so we are mostly looking at fairly calm conditions out there. We’ll get more sun than the last few days, but still partly cloudy sky with a few clouds rolling through.

Dry weather starts off next week and next week will nearly be a copy of last week. Another low-pressure system is moving down the West Coast to California, and then it looks to lift up and through Colorado over the mid-week. Precipitation looks to start up late on Wednesday and continue into at least Thursday.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 38 to 42
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/SW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 16 to 20
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/WSW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 38 to 42
    Winds/Direction: 2 to 12/W
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Saturday 3/14

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/14/2020

The weather looks to be all about tapering today. Snowfall looks to taper, cloud cover is going to taper, winds are doing the tapering thing, and well temperatures want to do their own thing and will climb to just above freezing at 11,000ft. The Ruby Range may hold onto mostly cloudy sky, while areas near and east of Crested Butte will fall closer to a partly cloudy sky.

Sunday looks like it could be a beautiful day with generally dry weather heading into the start of next week. Hopefully, the weather is tapering off so it can rest up and get ready for its next big event. Another low-pressure system will again be dropping down the West Coast over the next several days and looks to begin impacting our area with the next storm Wednesday night into Thursday.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 33 to 37
    Winds/Direction: 8 to 18/WSW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 1 to 3
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 2
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 18 to 22
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/WSW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 36 to 40
    Winds/Direction: 8 to 18/WSW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Obs around Crested Butte

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 03/12/2020
Subject: Obs around Crested Butte

Avalanches: Small wet loose avalanche cycle in the warming storm snow. In very shallow areas below treeline a few gouged to ground. The cycle appeared confined to areas close to Crested Butte where temps warmed up more. In the high peaks of the Elks and Ruby Range, no evidence of a wet cycle. Also numerous shallow avalanches in steep terrain that ran during the 3/11 rain event, with debris piles buried by the few inches of new snow overnight.

Weather: Warm calm day. Felt greenhouse-like.

Snowpack: Tested persistent weak layers on northeast and southeast facing slopes near treeline. No problematic structures observed at this location. On the southeast-facing slope, recent meltwater has drained down through the upper snowpack leaving frozen vertical ice bodies, with frozen spreading ice lenses welding the upper weak layers to the slabs. The deepest ice bodies were around 70 cm from the surface. On the northeast facing slope, we dug not in a deep spot, not in a shallow spot, but a mid-slope site with about average depth. The snowpack is right side up, with no propagating test results on any faceted layers.

Photos:

Mountain Weather For 11,000FT. Friday 3/13.

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/13/2020

The low-pressure system milling around the southern California coast has made its way eastward bringing warm and moist air to Colorado. Precipitation has reached the San Juans early this morning and will slide northward across the state. Snowflakes will start falling around sunrise today. Much of the precipitation will fall on Friday and Friday night, but light snow will linger through Saturday for the Crested Butte area. This warm system may bring the chance for rain at the lowest elevations.

Sunday through the middle of next week may bring mildly unsettled weather to Crested Butte, but no significant accumulations are expected during this period. Air temperatures will be very warm as the area sits under a southwest flow. The next chance at substantial snow accumulations will come towards the end of the workweek.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 31 to 35
    Winds/Direction: 8-18/SSW
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 5-8″
    Elkton Snow: 5-8″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 4-6″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 21 to 25
    Winds/Direction: 8-18/WSW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 4-6″
    Elkton Snow: 4-6″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 3-5″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 35 to 39
    Winds/Direction: 5-15/W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0-2″
    Elkton Snow: 0-2″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0-2″

Nice Creamy Conditions

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 03/12/2020
Name: Evan Ross
Subject: Nice Creamy Conditions
Aspect: North East, East, South, West
Elevation: 9,200-12,200

Avalanches: Good views across the Ruby Range from upper Slate and Washington Gulch with nothing more than a few roller balls or a couple small loose wet avalanches noticed.

Weather: Overcast in the morning, decreasing to party cloudy in the afternoon. Another warm day with light winds.

Snowpack: Traveled through a bunch of different aspects and elevations with know real issues encountered. At upper elevations, there was 10″ snow that has accumulated this week. That snow was a lovely creamy sustenance that was fast and carvey. This new snow was thick enough that loose dry avalanches were not a problem. Simple hand shears were inconsistent and all in all stability was good. Got on a couple of smaller wind-loaded terrain features without any results, but didn’t make it to the highest ridgelines along the Ruby Range. Upper elevations southerly slopes had the same 10″ of thick cold new snow. At 3pm around those upper elevations southeast slopes were still nice and creamy, while straight south was a little thicker but not moist.

This weeks snow accumulations decreased with elevation. Northeasterly slopes, down to the lowest point I traveled on that aspect at 9,500, had the same thick and creamy good snow. No avalanche concerns were found. Easterly slopes warmed a bit with rising temperatures, but otherwise didn’t get much sun thanks to the AM clouds. Mid to lower elevation southerly slopes held onto intact old crusts, with variable punching through the snowpack near thin areas. Resent snow has been zapped down into the old crusts and there wasn’t much snow available for loose wet concerns. Where the old crusts did break down and the snowpack was unsportive, if something got moving some how then it could gouge into that wet snowpack becoming large in size. Just barley touched some westerly near treeline at the end of the day with no real concerns to report.

The best place to trigger an avalanche I suspect, would have been somewhere very steep with a thin and punchy snowpack. Or late in the afternoon at mid to upper elevation southwesterly facing slopes that had some recent snow that was becoming wet and could Loose Wet Avalanche on the old crusts. While avalanche concerns were not necessarily encountered on this tour, paying attention to heightened avalanche conditions for warming snow in the afternoon felt spot on. Definitely some interesting weather with all the warm temps and last nights drizzle of rain.

Afternoon sled about

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 03/12/2020
Name: Eric Murrow
Subject: Afternoon sled about
Aspect: East, South East, South, South West
Elevation: 9,400′ – 11,000′

Weather: Partly cloudy in the afternoon with light winds.

Snowpack: Took a couple of quick looks at east-facing slopes near 11,000′ feet in the afternoon checking on new snow accumulations and the impact of last week’s warm weather. Unlike more southerly slopes, east-facing terrain has yet to see water move through the snowpack much. It remains in the upper 30cm of the snowpack with dry winter-like conditions below. Snow surfaces on the east aspects observed remained dry, except for slopes at very low elevations below 10k, from the cloud cover early in the day with about 4″ of recent snow.

While traveling through sunnier slopes, I did not find much terrain with a concerning Wet Loose problem. Sunny slopes in the afternoon, below 10k, had a couple inches of wet storm and rain-soaked snow, but old crusts below seemed to hang on just enough to keep a lid on the Wet Loose problem. The few spots that may have presented a problem for skier-triggering were very shallow, less than 100cm deep and at very low elevations near valley bottoms.

Axtel

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 03/12/2020
Subject: Axtel
Aspect: North East

Snowpack: Axtel this morning. There was about 3” of yesterday’s new snow that was capped with a little rain crust, then about 3” of wet pow (from this morning’s blast) on top of that. It appeared all well bonded when I dug around and it only sluffed slowly on steeper angles.