Mountain Weather

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/23/2017

The upper jet nosing into Colorado will carry yet another storm this morning, with good precipitation spurred by the upper level jet support slamming into the Rockies and adding good orographic lift. Unlike our last storm, todays weather will be accompanied by warmer temperatures, and much more wind, especially near and above treeline. Wind will begin to really howl starting early afternoon and build through this afternoon. Snowfall accumulations look to be in the 3-6” range on most models today, with more on the way tomorrow night. Tomorrow’s storm will add another boost of snowfall to bring snow totals potentially into the double digits. We will keep focused on today’s storm and wait for this afternoon’s model run to get excited.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 25
    Winds/Direction: 15-30mph G60/W
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 4-7″
    Elkton Snow: 4-7″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 2-4″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 7
    Winds/Direction: 10-20/WNW
    Sky Cover: Decreasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0-2″
    Elkton Snow: 0-2″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0-2″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 26
    Winds/Direction: 10-20/W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

More sand in the Sandbox

CB Avalanche Center2017-18 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 12/22/2017
Name: Evan Ross

Subject: More sand in the Sandbox
Aspect: North, North East, East, South
Elevation: 9,700-12,300

Weather: Gusting moderate winds from the northwest were blowing snow around above treeline. A few swirling gusts at lower elevations otherwise mostly calm winds. Few clouds.
Snowpack: Couldn’t buy an avalanche, even with one of those BitCoins. Yesterday’s new snow was very soft and lacked any cohesion to form slabs. Very continental snowpack. Maybe that snow fell with such cold temperatures, then the sky cleared overnight and the 6″ HST at 11,000ft just headed down the faceting train and never got a chance to strengthen into a slab. Kind of like sprinkling some powdered sugar on top of the large-grained sugar. It’s still a surgery sandbox. This was the snowpack structure on North and Northeast facing slopes above 10,500ft up to an observed 11,500ft. Below that elevation ban, there is very little snow. The crust that was observed in this observation was only present on easterly facing slopes in this area. Southerly facing slopes in the area were just a little new snow on the ground.

At ridgeline, most of the recent new snow had already been transported. This snow had been loaded onto easterly facing slopes right at ridgeline, and further downslope on cross-loaded terrain features. Drifts up to 2 feet deep could be found, but were very narrow and didn’t extend downslope very far. These drifts were also fist hard and didn’t want to budge on the old snow surface. Probably due to lack of cohesion or just small square footage size. Northeasterly and north facing slopes were blown back to the old snow surface. Cross-loaded terrain features on these north to northeast facing slopes would maybe be more reactive then what I observed?

In the end, went searching for an avalanche problem in some of the most suspect areas and couldn’t find one. Windslabs would have been the only terrain management, but didn’t find any that were reactive. When will more widespread slabs form is the big question.

Photos:

Protected NNE facing slope at 10,800ft. The new snow may look more white, but it was still just sugar on sugar. When ever that new snow forms a slab it will be ugly, but it hasn’t happened yet.

Windslab? They were all so soft on easterly facing terrain and not showing any sings of bugging on the old snow surface. Weak layers below but not nearly enough weight to collapse them. Right near rigeline these drifts were up to 2 feet deep. Most of the new snow in the alpine was already blown around by the winds.

North Aspect at 12,000ft. Mostly blown back to old snow surfaces. Thats a rock track sliding down the slick old snow.

 

Cross-loaded terrain features on north and northeast facing terrain may have been more suspect. These very soft slabs would have been managed like windslab characteristics.

Most of the new snow had already been transported above treeline.

Example of easterly aspect below 10,200ft. This thin snowpack coverage didn’t change between the Crested Butte Area or the Paradise divide Area. Northeasterly facing slops didn’t have much more coverage.

Looking at the 9,500ft to 11,400ft elevation ban generally facing Northeast, on Schuylkill Ride in the more snow favored Paradise Divide area. Still very thin snow coverage.

Mountain Weather

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/22/2017

Just as I was beginning to think we had all been naughty, and this storm was our equivalent to coal in the ol’ stocking…the stalled cold front limped its way over the West Elks and gave us the much anticipated snowfall. Look for a few clouds to hang over the high peaks this morning, before that cold, dry arctic air briefly takes hold before high and mid level clouds stream into the central mountains ahead of another storm set to reach Colorado late tonight, and last through tomorrow. Winds should remain light this morning, then steadily increase throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will struggle to break the mid teens, especially at higher elevations. There remains some uncertainty with the trajectory of this storm arriving tonight, forecasted to impact the northern mountains a bit more, but a shift of the jet south will tilt more favored snow totals our direction. Yet another storm is lining up for Rudolph’s voyage Christmas Eve. Maybe we have been good after all?

  • Today

    High Temperature: 20
    Winds/Direction: 5-15/WNW
    Sky Cover: Decreasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0″
    Elkton Snow: 0″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 10
    Winds/Direction: 10-20/WNW
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0-1″
    Elkton Snow: 0-1″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 25
    Winds/Direction: 15-25/W
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 4-6″
    Elkton Snow: 4-6″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 2-4″

Opa Hut Storm Observation

CB Avalanche Center2017-18 Observations

Location: Cement Creek Area
Date of Observation: 12/21/2017
Name: Morgan Boyles

Subject: Opa Hut Storm Observation
Aspect: North East, East
Elevation: 10-11,500

Avalanches:

none

Weather: intermittent bands of S-1 to S2 with overcast to broken skies. winds were calm to light.  10cm new snow.

Snowpack: skied east facing, 30º slopes 1mi north of Opas Hut, HS 30-90cm, mix of supportive, breakable and soft shaded facet skiing. 1 section of isolated cracking on NE facing slope on a slick melt-freeze crust. Good stability.

 

Pre-storm shakedown

CB Avalanche Center2017-18 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/20/2017
Name: ZDK

Subject: Pre-storm shakedown
Aspect: North, North East, East, North West
Elevation: 9000-11,200

Avalanches:

None observed.

Weather: Overcast with stormy-looking clouds building. 26F at 10:00 to 32F at 13:30, light S-W winds BTL
Snowpack: Toured E-NE-N-NW aspects from 9,000-11,200 around Wolverine Basin. Average snowpack 30-50cm of weak faceted snow below a 1-3 cm faceting crust from warmer temps in late Nov. That crust generally now has 1-4 cm of small faceted crystals above it on most sheltered slopes from recent light accumulations . Although the crust has weakened in recent weeks, it still may be capable of supporting a slab in certain areas especially as you move from North aspects to NE and E aspects.

Photos:

Mountain Weather December 21, 2017

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/21/2017

It’s going to snow today! The big question is “how much?” and there’s little agreement amongst Colorado meteorologists. The storm has slowed down a little, and the predicted timing of the cold air and precipitation isn’t consistent amongst our various resources. That said, there is good confidence that we’ll see at least a few inches by day’s end, with an outside possibility of a foot or more in areas favored by a southwest flow, like Irwin and Paradise Divide.
Essentially we’ve got a wave of low pressure with an associated cold front moving in from Utah. The precipitation will be largely focused around the cold front, which is sitting around Grand Junction early this morning. The slow progress may actually help if the front lingers over us for several hours this morning, but we’ll end up with less snow if the front passes quickly. Either way, by this evening the precipitation should end with skies clearing overnight. Tomorrow will be a beautiful snow covered day before another round of snow showers on Saturday.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 20
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, gusting to 30, Southwest
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 6 to 10″
    Elkton Snow: 6 to 8″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 3 to 7″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 5
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 10, Northwest
    Sky Cover: Decreasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 1 to 3″
    Elkton Snow: 1 to 2″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 20
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, gusting to 30, Northwest
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Mountain Weather December 20, 2017

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/20/2017

So we have one final day to enjoy Fall. Tomorrow, on the first official day of winter, winter will arrive! Today, we’ll see increasing clouds and pre-frontal winds ahead of a brief but potent storm.
This system begins as a digging trough, that will morph into a closed low-pressure system as it passes over Colorado. We’re expecting a somewhat abnormal storm profile, where we will see strong southwest winds before the front, then light southwest winds after the front. Interestingly the strongest winds will come in before the snow, so expect a windy night, then snowfall starting up early tomorrow morning.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 30
    Winds/Direction: 15 to 25, gusting to 40 in the PM, southwest
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 10
    Winds/Direction: 15 to 25, gusting to 35, southwest
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 1 to 2
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 15
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, gusting to 30, southwest
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 6 to 8
    Elkton Snow: 5 to 7
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 2 to 4

Mountain Weather December 19, 2017

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/19/2017

Today and tomorrow will be your last chances to ice skate at Long Lake or mountain bike the Lupine Trail. With two more mild days on tap, winter is finally approaching just in time for the winter solstice.
Northwest winds today will usher in some high thin clouds signaling the coming change. Tomorrow we’ll see the flow shift to the southwest bringing thickening and lowering clouds with increasing winds in front of a potent cold front on track for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Our forecast confidence is high that we’ll see plummeting temperatures later in the week. The weather models have bounced around on snow totals. Basically, this storm won’t bring a lot of moisture, but the atmosphere is going to get rowdy for a short while. At this point, I expect we’ll see big differences in snow totals between town and the high peaks. Stay tuned…

  • Today

    High Temperature: 30
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 10, Northwest
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 15
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, West
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 30
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, gusting to 35 in PM, Southwest
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Mountain Weather December 18th, 2017

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/18/2017

Gunnison Valley low temperatures are in the single digits while 11,000ft low temperatures are in the high teens. Temperatures will rebound into the 30’s today with clear skies and light winds. So it should be a beautiful day. This nice weather will hold for the start of the week before changes arrive on Wednesday. A low-pressure trough will start diving from the Northwestern United States towards Colorado. We’ll see increasing clouds on Wednesday and snow showers developing early on Thursday. 3” to 6” of snow on Thursday looks like a good bet and a welcome change. Temperatures will plummet for the weekend and we should also see some more snow accumulate.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 32
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/NW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 15
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/NW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 32
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/NW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0