Gothic 7am Weather Update

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 04/16/2020
Name: billy barr
Subject: Gothic 7am Weather Update

Weather: Cloudy with snow starting around 2 a.m. and going moderately until near 5 a.m. when wind started up. There was 4″ new and water 0.26″ with 41″ on the ground. Currently overcast and mild with the low 25F, high and current 29F. Wind is light but with strong, regular gusting so moving snow around. Loose slides have been running of steep areas on Gothic. The new snow sits on hard crust.

Cement Creek

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Cement Creek Area
Date of Observation: 04/16/2020
Name: Cosmo
Subject: Cement Creek
Elevation: 9300’

Weather: Just a dusting of new snow overnight.

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Thursday 4/16

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 04/16/2020

Well we got most of the things, moisture, an unstable atmosphere, jet support, cold front, now we are just waiting for the things to do their thing and produce that snow! Snowfall started around midnight with accumulations at 5am in the 1 to 2 inch range. We still have the chance to see snow accumulations get close to 10” by sunset for the Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide areas, even upper Brush Creek, and of course much less east of those areas in Crested Butte and the low valleys. The heaviest snowfall looks to occur before 1 pm today, then it eventually starts to taper off going into Friday.

I’m having some doubts this morning in hitting the higher snow numbers. The WRF is now showing the areas that will see 10” and more of snow, staying on the north side of the Elk Mountains and other parts of Colorado. The RAP and HRRR show a better distribution of snow in the 4 to 7” range. We got snow in the forecast and that’s what matters. Now we need to see where it falls.

Upper-level winds are going to be gusting in the 60+ range and we’ll see some strong winds mixing down in elevation today. Those strong winds start to taper off into Friday. Unseasonably cold temperatures remain through Friday.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 28 to 32
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20 G30/WSW
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 5 to 7
    Elkton Snow: 5 to 7
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 5 to 7

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 14 to 18
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 2
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 2
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 30 to 34
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/W
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Wednesday 4/15

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 04/15/2020

Overnight low temperatures are in the low teens around 11,000ft. In general, those low temperatures at all elevations are about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning. Warmer air is temperately moving in from the west on Thursday as we transition into the next storm. We’ll see increasing clouds today with some flurries of snow possible, but not adding up to much.

Moving into Wednesday night we have a good storm coming. A low-pressure trough and upper-level jet are digging down across the intermountain west. Then we’ll have moisture, the trough and the upper-level jet sitting over the area for nearly 24 hours. The best 12 hour period will be from midnight tonight until noon on Thursday. Snow then looks to continue into Friday with things winding down.

High-resolution models are showing some impressive totals just south of us in the West Elks. The western and northern portions of our forecast area will do well just from orographics. It’s harder to say where exactly all the peace of the storm will line up for the heaviest bands of snow. A general 6 to 12” of snow for this storm looks about average, with some areas pushing over that 12” mark.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 28 to 32
    Winds/Direction: 12 to 22/W
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 18 to 22
    Winds/Direction: 15 to 25 G35/WSW
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 5 to 8
    Elkton Snow: 4 to 7
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 3 to 6

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 28 to 32
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20/WSW
    Sky Cover: Overcast
    Irwin Snow: 4 to 6
    Elkton Snow: 4 to 6
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 3 to 6

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Tuesday 4/14

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 04/14/2020

Colorado remains on the western edge of a large and cold trough which is in place over much of the US. Cold and dry NW flow will drive the weather today with breezy conditions and below-average temperatures once again. Drier air will allow for more sunshine with orographically driven clouds possible over the highest terrain. Highs have trended slightly cooler than forecast with cold air making a strong push into the area from the north. Clouds may begin to drift back in later in the day ahead of the next shortwave.

Tomorrow clouds will be on the increase throughout the day as the jet stream migrates back west and the next storm begins picking up Pacific moisture. Expect temperatures 10-15 degrees warmer than today as a moist and warm air-mass moves in. Significant precipitation is possible late Wednesday and through the day on Thursday with the arrival of this next trough.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 17 to 21
    Winds/Direction: 15 to 25/NW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 4 to 8
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/WNW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 30 to 34
    Winds/Direction: 15 to 25/W
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 2″
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 2″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2″

Return of winter

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 04/13/2020
Name: Steve Banks
Subject: Return of winter
Aspect: North, North East, East
Elevation: 9800-11800
Avalanches:

None observed and minimal signs of instability.

Weather: Cold, grey and windy. Overcast all day with fleeting sun spots here and there. East winds in the valley proved to be westerly at higher elevations. Cold, dry snow was still moving around. Some flurries midday did not accumulate to much.

Snowpack: 4-7” of new snow on a mixed bag of firm melt freeze, breakable sun crusts and older faceted snow. New snow seemed to be bonding well, but stiffer windslabs were found on Easterly tilted terrain. Snow is being redistributed by wind and is scoured to old crusts in some areas.

Evan’s Basin to Scarp Ridge

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte area/Kebler Pass area
Date of Observation: 04/13/2020
Name: Zach Kinler
Subject: Evan’s Basin to Scarp Ridge
Aspect: North East, East, South East, South
Elevation: 9,600′-12,200′
Avalanches:

Observed a few old Wet Loose, one that triggered a D1.5 wet slab avalanche in Elk Basin on an east aspect around 11,200′. Likely ran during last week’s heatwave.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy skies with low-level clouds and flurries moving in around 13:00. Temps remained well below freezing with strong westerly winds making it feel like mid-winter again. Sun was surprisingly warm in the brief breaks in clouds.

Snowpack: 4-5″ of settled snow from the recent storm. Thin surface crusts from yesterday’s heating were present on aspects from E-S to just below 12,000′. Crusts below the recent cycle were 6-10″ thick and fully supportable to ski and boot. Near treeline drifts of 1-2 feet were observed on and just below ridgeline. Little to no cracking or instabilities were observed as these drifts tapered quickly downslope. Only minor drifting was still occurring with stronger gusts.

Moving just above tree line and the drifting was more consistent throughout the snow-favored areas around the Ruby Range with larger, open fetches still providing some snow. With consistent winds blowing for more than 24 hours, small Cornices of new snow have began to build at upper elevations as well as stiffer wind slabs. Minor cracking was seen in the upper few inches of stiffest snow with slightly softer drifted snow beneath.

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Monday 4/13

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 04/13/2020

Our area continues to sit on the western edge of a large trough of low pressure with breezy conditions and below-average temperatures. Expect highs today to be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as cold air continues to filter into the area. Skies will remain Mostly Cloudy over the higher terrain with fewer clouds as you move down the valley towards lower elevations. A secondary trough will bring a re-enforcing shot of cold air along with light snow showers this evening as we see temperatures drop well below normal.

After a cold night with lows near 0F, blustery conditions will prevail on Tuesday as cold, dry air remains in place in NW flow. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than today with skies beginning to clear allowing sunshine to begin a gradual warming trend as the large cold trough migrates eastward.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 21 to 25
    Winds/Direction: 15 to 25/W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 1″
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 0 to 5
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15/NNW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 1 to 3″
    Elkton Snow: 1 to 2″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 1 to 2″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 23 to 27
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20/NW
    Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 1″
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1″

Easter Ski

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 04/12/2020
Name: Steve
Subject: Easter Ski
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 9500-11800
Avalanches:

None observed and no signs of instability beyond wind transported snow at higher elevations.

Weather: Mostly sunny with cool temps remaining below freezing. Gusty winds from the west moving a lot of snow at ridgetop.

Snowpack: 5-6” of new snow seemed well bonded to the old crust. Freeze did not seem to go super deep, but snow is supportive. Solar affect become dramatic toward the afternoon with moist to wet snow. Thick new snow with scratchy surfaces underneath.

 

Washington Gulch/Baldy

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 04/12/2020
Name: Zach Kinler and Eric Murrow
Aspect: North East, East, South East, South, South West, West
Elevation: 9,600′-12,500′
Avalanches:

D1.5 Wind Slab on an east aspect above tree line on Afley Peak
Observed a D1.5 wind slab on a NE aspect at 11,800′, previously reported in another ob.
2 very small wind slabs on an east aspect below a small cornice

 

Weather: Light and variable winds in sheltered areas gave way to gusty westerly winds near ridgelines and on exposed alpine terrain. Mostly Cloudy skies gave way to a bit of sun around 15:00. Temps were noticeably cooler than previous days although not that mid-winter cold.

Snowpack: 6″ HST with lower elevations seeing similar amounts as upper elevations. 3″ MFcr was observed on a West aspect around 9,800. This crust was supportable to ski with a firm boot step breaking through to wet grains below but presents no threat of breaking down in the next couple days with the current cooling trend. Crusts were supportive to ski and boot, around 4-6 inches, as we moved above tree line on slopes facing E-S with avalanche concerns in the new snow only. Strong westerly wind was drifting snow into slabs up to a foot and a half deep on the lee side of the ridge. This stiffened snow was noticeable underfoot and confined to areas on and just under ridgeline producing localized cracking and one collapse. No avalanche concerns were encountered outside of drifted features. Winds continued to drift snow throughout the tour. New snow became moist in sheltered areas on the southern half of the compass below around 11K.