Date: 03/25/2018

Today will begin mostly sunny and warm, but clouds will be on the increase this afternoon. Southwest flow will be in place in front of the next system that remains off the west coast. Temperatures should be slightly cooler than yesterday. As clouds build it may be possible for a few snowflakes to fall in the area especially to the north of town. Expect winds to increase throughout the day.

• Today

  High Temperature: 35
  Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
  Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

• Tonight

  Low Temperature: 18
  Winds/Direction: 7 to 17, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
  Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

• Tomorrow

  High Temperature: 30
  Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, West Southwest
  Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
  Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

Date: 03/24/2018

“The Dude,” our name for the storm that lingered on the coast for a week, and rolled through the Elk Mountains yesterday, bowled a resounding strike. Schofield recorded 2.4″ of water and field team from the Grand Traverse reported close to two feet of new snow. In short, the crest of the Elk Mountains got pounded.
Temperatures dropped to the teens last night, but this morning the sun will crank the temps back above freezing quickly. By this afternoon, the increasing southwest winds will usher in high clouds ahead of a weak system clipping Colorado on Sunday.

• Today

  High Temperature: 40
  Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
  Irwin Snow: 0
  Elkton Snow: 0
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

• Tonight

  Low Temperature: 20
  Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
  Irwin Snow: 0
  Elkton Snow: 0
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

• Tomorrow

  High Temperature: 35
  Winds/Direction: 20 to 30, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 2″
  Elkton Snow: 0 to 2″
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2″

Date: 03/23/2018

Last night, the National Weather Service described this storm as holding record-breaking levels of moisture for a late March storm. The hitch is that the storm lacks the uplift and cooling necessary to drive historic snowfall.
That said, a lot of water has fallen out of the sky and there’s more on the way this morning. Current snowfall totals above 11,000′ range from 6″ to 8″ as of 6am, but that snow contains over an inch of water, meaning it’s unusually dense snow. The highest precipitation rates of this storm are yet to come, with a rager of a blizzard this morning above treeline.
By early afternoon, the storm will taper off, just in time for a sharp uptick in Westerly winds for the afternoon.
The good news for the Grand Traversers is that tonight, the winds will die down, temperatures will cool, making for an incredibly pleasant ski running conditions. Given the high moisture content in this snow, don’t forget to wax your skins.

• Today

  High Temperature: 32, falling throughout the day
  Winds/Direction: 20 to 30, gusting to 50 in the PM
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 10″ to 12″
  Elkton Snow: 10″ to 12″
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 8″ to 10″

  In downtown Crested Butte, we’ll be lucky to pick up 2″ of dense snow.

• Tonight

  Low Temperature: 10, colder above 12,000′
  Winds/Direction: 5 to 10, West
  Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
  Irwin Snow: 0
  Elkton Snow: 0
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

• Tomorrow

  High Temperature: 35
  Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, gusting to 30, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
  Irwin Snow: 0
  Elkton Snow: 0
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Date: 03/22/2018

“The Dude,” our beloved closed low parked on the coast this last week, steps up to the lane to bowl his final frame over the next few days. Today into Friday it looks like he’s going to throw a spare, leaving a few pins standing until Monday when he’ll try to finish up with a final bowling ball of a closed low.
Warm southwest flow ushers in a heaping pile of moisture today, with little storm organization or lifting mechanisms required for significant precipitation. It’s not until tonight when a weak cold front arrives that we’ll see temperatures drop and bowling pins falling from the sky. Below 11,000′ there’s a good chance any precip will be rain.
Tonight and Tomorrow morning, the storm will rage above 12,000′ with the precipitation intensity rapidly diminishing at lower elevations. Across the CBAC forecast area, we’ll see huge variations in snowfall totals, with only a few wet inches in town and as much as two feet in isolated areas along the Elk Crest.  That variation will be due to both the convective nature of the storm, with strong isolated cells, and also the elevation gradient, where we’ll see much more snow up high.  For the GT folks, the models are showing about a foot for Star and Taylor passes, but the storm could exceed those numbers anywhere a convective thunder-cell pops. By mid-day Friday, the storm will taper off, leaving temps in the low 20’s and a light breeze for race night.

• Today

  High Temperature: 40
  Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 2″
  Elkton Snow: 0 to 2″
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2″

• Tonight

  Low Temperature: 30
  Winds/Direction: 20 to 30, gusting to 50, Southwest
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 5 to 8″
  Elkton Snow: 5 to 8″
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 5 to 8″

• Tomorrow

  High Temperature: 35
  Winds/Direction: 20-30, gusting to 40 West Southwest
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 6 to 8″
  Elkton Snow: 6 to 8″
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 6 to 8″

Date: 03/21/2018

“The Dude,” the strong closed low that’s been parked over the Pacific for the last week, if preparing for the final bowling frame. The big question is will it be a strike, a spare, or a gutter ball.
Today will be warmer than the last couple days, but otherwise quite similar as the waning hours of the recent “dirty ridge” of high pressure passes overhead. Expect on and off clouds, moderate winds and temperatures climbing to above freezing at 11,000′, even a chance for a localized flurry or two over the high peaks.
By tonight, the ridge axis passes overhead, and the southwest flow in front of the Dude’s final approach begins to usher in warm air and significant moisture. Tomorrow the moisture and clouds arrive as a southern split off the main atmospheric river presently impacting the coast. Precipitation will begin as rain up to around 11,000′, transitioning to dense snow by tomorrow night. The main system will track to our north, so here in the Elk Mountains we’ll see swampy conditions with precipitation driven primarily by southwest orographics, which means the snowfall will be much greater in the high country than in town.
For you Grand Traverse-o-philes, the models are currently projecting storm totals by mid-day Friday of around 4″ of snow in town, 12″ at Star Pass and 10″ at Taylor Pass. Bring your glob-stopper and don’t expect to skate ski your way over the Elk Mountains.

• Today

  High Temperature: 30
  Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, West
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 1″
  Elkton Snow: 0 to 1″
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1″

• Tonight

  Low Temperature: 15
  Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, West
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 0
  Elkton Snow: 0
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

• Tomorrow

  High Temperature: 35
  Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, gusting to 30, West Southwest
  Sky Cover: Overcast
  Irwin Snow: 0 to 2″, starting as rain below 11,000′
  Elkton Snow: 0-2″, starting as rain below 11,000′
  Friend’s Hut Snow: 0-2″, starting as rain below 11,000′