Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 01/24/2019
Name: Ian Havlick

Subject: Rough Overall Danger Analysis of CBAC Forecast Area
Aspect:
Elevation:

Avalanches:

Rough Analysis of Avalanche danger across forecast area with colors corresponding (yellow=moderate danger, yellow-ish orange = trending from considerable to Moderate, and dark orange = lingering more widespread considerable danger). Additionally, red stars symbolize observed avalanches size D2.5 or larger since 1/18/2019.

As communicated in daily avalanche forecasts, the threat of greater (larger and more widespread) avalanche activity (both persistent slab and wind slabs) in the shallower snow-covered areas near and east of Crested Butte is symbolized in this visual interpretation.

As illustrated by the red stars, there have been many more large to very large avalanches in the eastern portion of our forecast area.  The greatest uncertainty lies in these transition areas in a band from Gothic, to Washington Gulch to Mount Emmons, to Mount Axtell.  

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 01/23/2019
Name: Avalanche

Subject: Two very large natural avalanches on the White Mountain massif

Avalanches: Two very large avalanche that ran early on 1/23. The sunny avalanche faces southwest, the shady one faces due west. These avalanches are located on the White Mountain massif to the north of Crested Butte.

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 01/23/2019
Name: Cosmo Langsfeld

Subject: Snodgrass
Aspect: North, East
Elevation: trailhead to 11000′

Avalanches:

From Snodgrass trailhead, observed several large avalanches on White mtn and WSC Peak on SW aspects with crowns just below ridgline. Another much smaller avalanche on same aspect at lower elevation on WSC. Clouds were rolling in as I pulled up to the trailhead, so couldn’t get a clear picture, but they looked to be fresh-ish (sometime since the last storm).

Weather: Partly cloudy, then overcast with light snowfall. Light, swirling winds.

Snowpack: Supportive. Ski pen 4-8 inches. Not supportive to boot. Snow surface was soft powder with some minor wind scouring up top. Dug a pit on shallow angle (maybe 20-25 degree) north facing slope at around 11000′. Snow height 140cm. From top down– 140-120: soft fresh snow, 120-30: 4f to fist with a few distinct layers, below 30 was a mix of large grained sugar with spots of ice up to pencil hardness. Compression test produced failure on crust at 30cm above ground level after second tap from the elbow.

Photos:

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 01/23/2019
Name: Evan Ross

Subject: Thick Firm Wind Deposits Or Good Pow
Aspect: North, East, South
Elevation: 10,000-11,500

Avalanches:

1 small looking slab on a west aspect of Mt Axtell at 11,400ft. Long ways away so hard to tell how fresh. Could have been a D2 but looked smaller, and again just to far away to tell.

Weather: Mostly Cloudy. Few snow flurries in the afternoon, but not accumulating. Drifting snow during moderate wind gusts.

Snowpack: Quiet snowpack and no obvious sings to instability. Previous north to northwest winds had clearly blown up northerly slopes and loaded easterly to southerly facing slopes. Managing terrain for the thickest loading was good travel advice. Pushed on a few loaded slopes with no result, but the wind-loaded snow was thick and very dense. A ski cut in that thick snow wan’t something you would want to hang your hat on. South facing slopes also had a thin crust at the surface from yesterday.

HS was in the 155 to 200+ cm range. Dug one hole on a north facing NTL slope with a nice even snowpack. HS 195. Dug into the upper 100cm and of course no layers of concern. Outside of managing wind-loading, the best practice felt like managing the terrain for potential trigger points where the snowpack would thin, or very steep slopes that may hold a shallower and weaker snowpack.

Photos:

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 01/23/2019
Name: Ian Havlick

Subject: Irwin Cat Operation Meteogram Jan 1-Jan 23rd
Aspect:
Elevation: 10000-12000

Avalanches:

Weather: Irwin’s meteogram of day of month, sky cover, surface snow form, solar radiation, ridge (green) and valley (blue) temperatures, max wind gust for 24hr period, average wind, direction, 10,000ft snow height, daily snow totals, CBAC avalanche hazard. Internal product, but posted for public reference. This resource has been referenced in the CBAC Fireside Chat series and users have voiced a strong interest in being able to access this resource. Forecasters will periodically post these updated meteograms throughout the winter.

Snowpack:

Photos:

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 01/22/2019
Name: Eric Murrow

Subject: BTL W and SW in snow favored local
Aspect: South West, West
Elevation: 9,000′ to 10,900′

Avalanches:

Several slides were a bit tough to tell if fresh or not because lots of crowns are still visible across the range. Certainly one fresh slide on south side of Cinnamon, D2.

Weather: Mostly clear skies down valley with clouds forming over Ruby Range and Schofield park from north flow. No snow.

Snowpack: Travelled on W and SW slopes below treeline up to 11,200′ and found HS average between 140-155cm. Stability test produced no significant results – nothing propagating. Found several small terrain features in upper 30 degrees that did not have any apparent traffic and stomped hard without collapsing or cracking. Overall the snowpack was quiet and supportive. Basal weak layers show significant signs of rounding and were generally in the 4f+ range for hardness.

Took a look at the remote triggered avalanche from Sunday on a SW at 10,800 feet. Upon inspection this slide failed on top of 1/15 suncrust, did not collapse it, involved just the drifted snow from 1/16 – 1/18.

Clear signs of drifting on to the south half of the compass near and above treeline from northerly winds.

Photos: