Location: Crested Butte Area Date of Observation: 12/13/2019 Name: billy barr
Subject: Gothic Townsite 6am Obs
Aspect:
Elevation: 9400 Weather: Cloudy and mild with snow starting up after dark and going moderate until after midnight, then lighter as wind becomes moderate with strong gusts. Snow board at 5:30 shows 6½” new snow and 0.48″ water as snow pack reaches winters high of 22″. Wind is moderate and gusting from the west with currently light and blowing snowfall. Little temp. movement with the overnight high 26, low 24 and current 24ºF. I will update after 7 a.m. sweep. billy
A complicated, multi-stage storm will drop significant snow accompanied by strong westerly winds today through tomorrow. A well defined stream of moisture with origins near Hawaii will arc over Northern California and slam into the Elk Mountains riding a 170-200kt jet (impressive!) today, with models showing the heaviest snowfall early Saturday morning. Today, light snow will generally continue, with areas near Kebler and Schofield Passes will seeing the most steady orographic snow continue most of the day. Around sunset, snowfall with taper, before the next wallop arrives Friday night into Saturday. West-Northwest winds will continue to gust into the 40-50mph range above timberline throughout this event. Temperatures will remain quite mild in the mid to upper 20s and may even even rise into the lower 30s with the the moister airmass tomorrow. Today, look for daytime snow accumulations less than 6”, but the main event Friday night into Saturday should not disappoint. Total storm snow accumulations look to easily exceed 20” across the high terrain surrounding Crested Butte by Sunday morning.
Today
High Temperature: 20-25 Winds/Direction: 20 G40-50/WNW Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy Irwin Snow: 3-6″ Elkton Snow: 3-6″ Friend’s Hut Snow: 2-4″
Location: Paradise Divide Area Date of Observation: 12/12/2019 Name: Zach Kinler
This week saw multiple storms and avalanche cycles as well as an expanding persistent slab problem. Track all that and more by reading the full summary here.
We have another cold morning. Partly cloudy sky overnight helped those low temps again drop down to near 0 in the valleys and the low teens in the mountains. A Pacific river of moisture has made its way into the US and will give us a nice spray here in Colorado to close out the week. Clouds will be thickening on Thursday with some light snowfall late this afternoon. Then the action gets going on Thursday Night into Friday Morning. The snowfall ramps up on Thursday night, and by Friday morning we’ll have, good available moisture, good upper-level jet support, and WNW orographics kicking in. This all should line up for some heavy pulses of snow on Friday morning. The wind speeds will also be elevated during this time so get ready for some real winter storm conditions during the early AM hours of Friday.
The hose of moisture streaming into Colorado looks to falter a bit for a period of time on Friday. If this happens we’ll see an associate lull in snowfall. That moisture stream then realigns Friday Afternoon and into Saturday with an even better round of snow. By Sunday the moisture currently looks to sag south of our area, otherwise, we could see snow continue towards the end of the weekend if that moisture stays further north in later forecast model runs.
Today
High Temperature: 24 to 28 Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, West Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy Irwin Snow: 0 to 2 Elkton Snow: 0 to 2 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2
Tonight
Low Temperature: 16 to 20 Winds/Direction: 15 to 25 G40, West Sky Cover: Overcast Irwin Snow: 5 to 8 Elkton Snow: 5 to 8 Friend’s Hut Snow: 4 to 7
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 20 to 24 Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, West Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy Irwin Snow: 2 to 4 Elkton Snow: 1 to 3 Friend’s Hut Snow: 1 to 3
Ok, I want to talk quickly about today so we can move on to the snow baby! This morning valley low temperatures are again below zero while 11,000ft temperatures are in the high teens. Wind-speeds have decreased overnight and look to stay down for today. Upper-level moisture starts increasing this afternoon and we’ll see that with increasing clouds. Enough of that? Let’s move onto the snow part.
Thursday afternoon into the Friday AM hours is looking good for the snow bits. Westerly flow will bring a moisture tap stretching out to Hawaii. That moisture is looking good at both 500mb and 700mb during the above timeframe. In my perfect world, it could drop a bit further south and stay more consistent, but never the less we’ll have the stuff snowflakes are made of. The atmosphere will further be unstable and we’ll have strong winds aloft. So we are shaping up good. To call a foot of snow for this time period may be a bit dreamy at the moment, but it should stack up never the less. Dryer air moves in later on Friday, then more snow looks to be in the forecast for Saturday!
Today
High Temperature: 20 to 24 Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, W Sky Cover: Increasing clouds Irwin Snow: 0 Elkton Snow: 0 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0
Tonight
Low Temperature: 14 to 18 Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, W Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy Irwin Snow: 0 to 1 Elkton Snow: 0 to 1 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 24 to 28 Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, W Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy Irwin Snow: 0 to 2 Elkton Snow: 0 to 2 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2
Location: Brush Creek Area Date of Observation: 12/10/2019 Name: Eric Murrow
Subject: West Brush Creek
Aspect: East, South, South West
Elevation: 9000′ to 11450′ Avalanches: Gothic: 2xSS-R1-D2 large avalanche on “spork” and east face
Baldy: 1xSS-R2-D2 large avalanche on an alpine east face
WSC: 2xSS-R2-D2 SE alpine terrain features
Weather: Clear skies, mild temperatures, and light winds in terrain traveled. No significant loading but occasional drifting at highest terrains near peaks,.
Snowpack: Traveled up onto Teo ridge from West Brush Creek looking at slab structure to the east of Crested Butte. Profile dug in an east-facing meadow at 11,200′ found HS 78cm with cohesive slab resting above old, weak facets at the ground. Test results CTV and ECTP16. This structure produced numerous rumbling collapses in nearby areas. HS on south and southwest facing near and below treeline was around 40cm. Southerly terrain produced collapses as well but not nearly as large as east-facing terrain. Southerlies had a double crust with facets beneath. South-facing slopes below treeline had become moist by the afternoon. Poor looking structure in most terrain traveled. HS at 9900′ in valley bottom below Teocalli was around 5ocm.
Location: Paradise Divide Area Date of Observation: 12/10/2019 Name: Sam Roberts
Subject: Coneys
Aspect: North, North East, East
Elevation: 9600′-10380′ Avalanches:
Saw a small point release slide in Coon Basin on Mount Emmons N aspect R1D1
On the way to Coneys we saw R1.5 D2 on the South side of Mount Baldy around 12000′
Weather: Sunny all day with little to no wind in the valley bottom. The morning started at around -18 degrees C and warmed up to -8 degrees C by the end of the tour. There was abundant westerly winds on the mountain tops with a lot snow transport.
Snowpack: There is more snow out there but its still pretty scary. On the way out to Coneys there was widespread woompfing and cracking on the flats away from the skin track. Once we did the uphill into Cat’s Hat glades we dug a pit on a 29 degree slope facing NE-E at 10380′. We found a solid spot and found 66cm of snow where three layers were present, the new snow (10cm of F hard stellars), a large slab structure (top 20cm F hard rounded grains and the lower 20cm 4F hard rounded grains), and finally that lovely basal facet layer (16cm F hard 2-3mm facets). As we were setting up for an ECT, the column failed on isolation in a very sudden planar Q1 fracture on the basal facet/slab interface that propagated across the entire column (so ECTP 0?). Frightening results, so we stuck to lower angle terrain and ended up getting some pretty nice turns and no one got any core shots.
Location: Kebler Pass Area Date of Observation: 12/10/2019 Name: Evan Ross & Zach Kinler
Subject: Recent Natural Avalanches
Several fresh natural avalanches were observed on 12/10 thanks to the mostly clear sky and good light. Some of these avalanches looked very fresh and may have released during the AM hours of 12/10. Most avalanches in this natural cycle probably failed during the PM hours of 12/9 or the AM hours of 12/10.
Northeast:
4th Bowl on Axtell. A fresh large avalanche that failed at the ground and initiated on the cross-loaded portion of the bowl. The rest of the avalanche was obscured by the terrain in between.
East:
East Bowl in the Anthracites. A small Wind Slab looked to have released above the cliffs, it then fell onto the slope below and triggered a Persistent Slab failing on SH in the upper snowpack, which then collapsed the well-developed facets at the bottom of the snowpack releasing a larger Persistent Slab. All that also remotely triggered a Persistent Slab failing on the ground next to this avalanche. The avalanche debris had 3 to 5mm SH that had grown on them since the avalanche released.
Ruby/Owen Saddle. A large slab avalanche that appeared to have stepped down into old snow. Released in the last 24hr. SS-N-R1-D2-O
Red Coon Bowl. A Small Wind Slab released off the ridge and stepped slightly deeper into the snowpack releasing a small persistent Slab. SS-N-R1-D2-O
South East:
Afley Peak, ATL. A large slab 1-2ft deep and estimated to have broken into old snow. SS-N-R2-D2-O
3rd hand report: Skier triggered avalanche on Tree Chute in the Anthracites on 12/9. No specific information.
4th Bowl on Axtell. A fresh large avalanche that failed at the ground and initiated on the cross-loaded portion of the bowl.
A Small Wind Slab released off the ridge and stepped slightly deeper into the snowpack releasing a small persistent Slab. SS-N-R1-D2-O
The clouds and lingering flurries have exited the area overnight with mostly clear skies expected today with light winds. A light inversion has set up overnight, under clearer skies, with valley bottoms pushing just below 0. The weather will be uneventful today and tomorrow. Late Wednesday a very weak disturbance will quickly pass over the area but will bring very little moisture and is not expected to produce much snowfall if any at all.
The next significant snow producers will begin to impact the area on late Thursday night. This system looks like it will establish a zonal flow for several days with the possibility of significant snow accumulations through the weekend. Stay tuned over the next couple of days as this system gets closer. It is looking like we will have a snowy weekend coming up.
Today
High Temperature: 25 to 29 Winds/Direction: 7 to 17, WNW Sky Cover: Clear Irwin Snow: 0 Elkton Snow: 0 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0
Tonight
Low Temperature: 6 to 10 Winds/Direction: 7 to 17, W Sky Cover: Mostly Clear Irwin Snow: 0 Elkton Snow: 0 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 24 to 28 Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, WSW Sky Cover: Increasing clouds Irwin Snow: 0 Elkton Snow: 0 Friend’s Hut Snow: 0
