Mountain Weather For 11,000ft Sunday 12/15

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/15/2019

Winds have eased and become light overnight, while snowfall also tapered off after midnight. The moisture stream has now moved to our south. A short wave trough will be passing over Colorado today. Models show us staying just to the north of that main moisture feed, so if that holds up we are only talking about a little new snow this afternoon. If that model guidance is wrong and the moisture pushes a bit further north then we could see more snow adding up this afternoon and into the evening.

Heading into Monday the Temperatures will be dropping as we sit under northerly flow. The mountains will see high temperatures in the single digits and low temperatures in the negatives. By Tuesday a large high pressure will be overhead bringing clears sky and continued cold temperatures.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 16 to 20
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, NNW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 1 to 3
    Elkton Snow: 1 to 3
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: -6 to -2
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, NNW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 2
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 2
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 5 to 9
    Winds/Direction: 7 to 17, NNW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

Gothic Obs

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/14/2019
Name: Steve Banks
Subject: Gothic Obs
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 9,500

Avalanches: None observed—poor visibility

Weather: 6-8” of new snow accumulation. Periods of S4 snowfall. Whiteout most of the day. Strong down valley (NW) winds which curiously shifted to up valley from time to time. Temps in the mid to upper 20’s. Around dusk the winds and snowfall tapered significantly.

Snowpack: Shooting cracks and collapse on small 36* East facing slope. Shovel tilt test failed repeatedly within the new snow while isolating or removing the column. Compression Test also failed on isolation (CTV) failing are the ground. Strong over weak structure observed, though in the location Basel facets were minimal and discontinuous. Most notable in our snow pit was the upside down new snow and storm slab failures.

Sensitive Snodgrass

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/14/2019
Subject: Sensitive Snodgrass
Aspect: East, South East
Elevation: BTL

Avalanches: Poor visibility prevented views of surrounding landscapes.

Weather: Variable weather. Overcast skies with periods of S-1, S1, and S2 snowfall, but mostly S-1. This snowfall really didn’t result in snow accumulation. Did notice graupel grains on the snow surface. Primary weather factor for snow accumulation were the winds, which were moderate at times with moderate snow transport, especially in unprotected areas. Temperatures were closer to freezing in the trees and in sheltered areas.

Snowpack: Shallow snowpack in the spruce with air pockets around branches and down trees. Collapsing and cracking on new skin track in the spruce, but isolated to the skin track.

Four hasty hand pits from the aspen through the spruce all had failures on a layer 6 inches below the snow surface. In wind affected areas, hand CT resulted in CT1 Q1. Other tests were CT2 and CTV Q2 but all on the layer about 6 inches below the snow surface. Failure layer is buried surface hoar?

 

Cement Creek Snow

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Cement Creek Area
Date of Observation: 12/14/2019
Name: Cosmo

Subject: Cement Creek Snow

Weather: Cement Creek @ 9400’, 8am Saturday—6.5” of snow over last 24ish hours bringing storm total thus far to to about 12”. Snow this morning seemed denser than the snow I shoveled yesterday morning. Plenty of wind blowing fresh snow around.

 

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/14/2019

All the ingredients are lining up for another good dose of snowfall across our forecast area today into Sunday as the strong upper level jet stream slowly sags from the I-70 corridor southward into Gunnison County and the Elk Mountains tonight. Snow, heavy at times and strong westerly winds will continue throughout the day today creating near whiteout conditions near and above treelike once again. There may be a lull in snowfall midday, but should redevelop again this afternoon. Tonight, a sagging cold front will push the jet stream southward into the San Juans, shutting off the major moisture tap, but creating favorable west-northwest flow over our mountains into Sunday morning. Sunday should see improving visibility, backing winds and partial sunshine to return, especially in the afternoon.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 20-25
    Winds/Direction: 20 G40-50/WNW
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 4-8″
    Elkton Snow: 4-8″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 3-6″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 15-20
    Winds/Direction: 20 G40-50/W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 2-4″
    Elkton Snow: 2-4″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 1-3″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 15-20
    Winds/Direction: 15-25/NW
    Sky Cover: Decreasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 1-3″
    Elkton Snow: 1-3″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0-2″

Gothic Townsite 6am Obs

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/14/2019
Name: billy barr

Subject: Gothic Townsite 6am Obs

 

Elevation: 9400
Weather: Snow stopped near sunrise yesterday and it stayed dry, though very windy, the rest of the day. Wind let up near sunset and snow started just at dark and continued through the night. Wind was mild until becoming strong near 4 a.m. as snowfall continued. Totals so far are 7″ new snow with 0.56″ SWE and snowpack at 27½”. Currently light snow and strong wind, about 8-15 W gusting to 30. Temperature dropped to 18F but gradually climbed to the current 26F. It is not nice out there. billy

 

Gothic Valley

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/13/2019
Name: Steve Banks

Subject: Gothic Valley

Aspect: North East

Elevation: 9,500’
Avalanches:

No avalanches observed.

Weather: Left the Snodgrass TH a little after 2 pm in a nice lull in the storm. Got a little sun, broken skies and light winds. Could see moderate to intense wind loading at ridge top on White Mtn. Temps started off relatively mild in the mid 20’s and dropped significantly through the afternoon. Ceiling dropped and light snow beginning again by 5 pm.

Snowpack: Average 7” of new snow BTL with some wind effect. Average HS 40cms. Still lots of grass and bushes showing on southerly slopes. Stomping on steep road cuts produced some cracking, though less than expected. Cracks went full depth to basal facets.

 

Storm Break Tour

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/13/2019
Name: Joey Carpenter

Subject: Storm Break Tour

Aspect: East, South East, South

Elevation: 9400-11900
Avalanches:

From the car (estimated) R1D2 SE face baldy

E face Emmons ridge 11.5k R1D1.5 gouged into scree at the ground on this 40 degree+ (estimate) crown was partially filled by the time I saw this approximately 24 inch deep slide.

Weather: OVC throughout tour from 1430-1700. Break in the storm provided light winds, little to no snowfall. S2 rates started by the time I reached 11k. Westerly winds picked up during my transition causing heavy snow transport along visible ridges. Snowpack: The higher in elevation, the denser the slab felt through pole probing and quick hand puts. Especially drifted areas. I did get some small collapses but nothing substantial. Slope angles were kept in check and all steep terrain was avoided. Snow totals at 11k were 9 inches.

Irwin Cat Ski Operation

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 12/13/2019
Name: Irwin Guides

Subject: Irwin Cat Ski Operation

Aspect: South West, West

Elevation: 10-12,000
Weather: Full storm conditions with whiteout conditions above treeline before 1300, tapering to a
nice lull with lifting ceilings and much decreased wind. Temps remained cold in the upper teens at 12k.
Total storm accumulation sits at 13″ with 1.5″. Total accumulation during the day was 1″ rimed snow with .2″
water. Snowpack: Pasted wind-driven snow largely lacked signs of instability most of the day. Last
runs of the day in MWW produced skier triggered storm slabs 20-45cm deep toward the end of the day, and other
small slopes began to crack off ski tips on UWW terrain (Outer limits, Assassin pockets). Profile dug in
Outer Limits revealed PST20/100(end), and PST30/100(end) down 60cm in early November facets.

Cement Creek New Snow

CB Avalanche Center2019-20 Observations

Location: Cement Creek Area
Date of Observation: 12/13/2019
Name: Cosmo

Subject: Cement Creek New Snow

Aspect:

Weather: Cement Creek @ 9400’- 5.5” new snow as of 5am Friday