Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 02/06/2020
Name: Zach Kinler
The warmest day of the season followed by perhaps the coldest and gearing up for our biggest storm of the season. You better check out the full summary here!
Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Thursday 2/6
Date: 02/06/2020
The Great Northern Pineapple is arriving. A huge arc of moister is streaming from near Hawaii, up to the Northwestern US, then down through Washington, Idaho, Wyoming and finally Colorado. That moisture is on quite the journey and will be turning into lots of snowflakes over the next 48 hours. This looks to be a significant winter storm. The jet stream will be overhead and helping create an unstable atmosphere for snow production, but the largest snow totals are going to be from Oragraphics. So this Northwest to West-Northwest flow is going to favor the Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide. We’ll see snow numbers stacking up later today with the peek precipitation looking to be late-Thursday into Friday.
Alpine winds are going to be cranking during this entire storm. Upper elevation wind gusts will be hitting the 60’s on Thursday and further increasing into the 70’s and 80’s Thursday night into Friday. Those winds will mix down into the valleys and create blizzard conditions as well late Thursday into Friday.
Late Friday starts to dry out and clearing weather continues into Saturday.
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Today
High Temperature: 18 to 22
Winds/Direction: 15 to 25 G50/WNW
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 5 to 7
Elkton Snow: 4 to 6
Friend’s Hut Snow: 4 to 6 -
Tonight
Low Temperature: 12 to 16
Winds/Direction: 15 to 25 G60/NW
Sky Cover:
Irwin Snow: 10 to 15
Elkton Snow: 10 to 15
Friend’s Hut Snow: 5 to 8 -
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 20 to 24
Winds/Direction: 15 to 25 G60/WNW
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 12 to 17
Elkton Snow: 10 to 15
Friend’s Hut Snow: 5 to 8
Elk Creek Checkin
Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 02/05/2020
Name: Evan Ross
Subject: Elk Creek Checkin
Aspect: North East, East
Elevation: 9,500-10,400
Weather: Down Valley Winds were just strong enough to continue drifting snow through the low elevation corridor. While sky remained in the partly cloudy realm and temperatures were cold.
Snowpack: Cruised across some low elevation start zones facing northeasterly and easterly. Previous wind loading at these lower elevations felt concerning enough to consider today and was apparent with the train management of the previous tracks in the area. Though an avalanche failing in recent snow or in old snow layers both appeared stubborn. Those previously wind-loaded start zones held the strongest looking snowpack. A Wind Slab on wind-board on more wind-board with some weak layers sandwiched in-between. It appeared that a large loading event would fail in the upper snowpack layering or within the new snow, then step down below the wind-loaded terrain into the weaker snowpack below. It didn’t really matter, there is a weak snowpack structure and new avalanches will fail or step down into it with either a rapid or significant load. The most significant weak layer found in this terrain was on an easterly facing slope. Here a thin crust at the old snow surface was sitting above much weaker snow below. Hand pits easily produced results below this crust with the more recent snow riding along. On southerly facing slopes the most recent crust was supportive to both skis and snowmobile, and the next loading event would likely fail above this crust.
Thin crust capping weaker snow below. East aspect in Elk Creek.
Mountain Weather for 11,000ft. Wednesday 2/5
Date: 02/05/2020
Last night we had cold northerly flow plus clear skys adding additional radial cooling. That all adds up to low temperatures near -25 in the coldest valleys and negative teens in the mountains. We are currently tucked inside a low-pressure trough with some nice calm conditions. Generally light winds should continue for most of Wednesday with some partly cloudy sky developing.
Winds start ramping up Wednesday night as we land in the sights of the next storm. An Atmospheric River of moisture currently slamming into the NW United States, will start nosing into Colorado. That moisture feed is going to stay over the area from early Thursday morning through Friday. This event will begin with northerly flow and eventually become west-northwest flow by Friday. Strong upper-level winds and periods of high precipitation rates will create a legitimate winter storm.
Total water amounts with this storm look to be 1.2 to 2 inches. Big money, the favorable origrafics for Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide will help exceed those numbers. So we expect to measure the total snow amounts with our feet, and not those inches between your knuckles.
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Today
High Temperature: 8 to 12
Winds/Direction: 8 to 18/NW
Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
Irwin Snow: 0
Elkton Snow: 0
Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 -
Tonight
Low Temperature: -3 to 1
Winds/Direction: 10 to 20/NW
Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
Irwin Snow: 0 to 2
Elkton Snow: 0 to 2
Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 2 -
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 18 to 22
Winds/Direction: 15 to 25/G50 WNW
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 5 to 7
Elkton Snow: 4 to 6
Friend’s Hut Snow: 4 to 6
Poverty Gulch
Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 02/04/2020
Name: Evan Ross & Eric Murrow
Subject: Poverty Gulch
Aspect: North East, East, South East, South
Elevation: 9,500-12,000
Weather: Partly Cloudy for the AM hours, and increasing to mostly cloudy in the PM hours. Periods of S-. Calm winds became a consistent moderate from the west northwest. New snow was not visibly blowing off the high peaks, but constantly saltating and drifting near the snow surface. Eric climbed in his goggles because his cheeks were apparently cold.
Snowpack: The new snow accumulation was 8″ at 9,600ft in Poverty Gultch. Traveling higher in the terrain, of course, those measurements became more variable with drifting. Drifts 1 to 2ft thick were encountered on wind-loaded terrain. Surprisingly very little instability was found in that new snow or at the old snow surface. Still, managing wind-loaded terrain for new Wind Slabs was the most common problem. We did kick off a couple very small Wind Slabs and chose to travel around some wind-loaded terrain features. The new snow was further becoming thicker throughout the day with the continued wind.
The Persistent Slab problem was considered on one slope that had an ugly terrain trap, and more regularly on very steep slopes that looked to have variable snow coverage through rocky terrain. The new snow had made no change or increased concern for the Persistent Slab Issue. We need a good loading event to collapse recently formed crusts and wind-board or to stress more deeply buried weak layers.
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- Example of the fresh Loose Snow Avalanches.
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- SE at 11,700ft. A crust supportable to skis with around a foot of new snow on it. Waiting for enough load to collapse.
Cement Creek Snow
Location: Cement Creek Area
Date of Observation: 02/04/2020
Name: Cosmo
Subject: Cement Creek Snow
Elevation: 9400
Weather: ~3.5″ new snow since yesterday afternoon (as of 6am 2/4)
Mountain Weather For 11,000FT
Date: 02/04/2020
Yesterday’s storm came in on cue at about noon and dropped 2 to 5 inches across the forecast area. Winds, however, remain elevated yesterday afternoon and last night blowing the new snow around from the southwest. The low-pressure system stalled yesterday with the trough axis currently overhead. As the trough finally passes by, winds will make the shift to a more northerly direction late today. Air temperatures are quite cold across the forecast area close to the 0 mark. For today, light snowfall will linger across the highest terrain but is expected to produce just a few more inches. Winds will remain elevated until the trough axis finally moves eastward.
The atmosphere will briefly dry out on Tuesday night and Wednesday before a more exciting system impacts the area on Wednesday evening through about Friday. A wet northwest flow will set-up over Colorado which looks to include a strong jetstream and an Atmospheric River. The model runs has been reasonably consistent the past two days and the ample available moisture is clear. This system may offer the potential for snow to be measured in feet for the favored areas to the west and north of Crested Butte…..but the picture will become clearer over the next 24 hours.
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Today
High Temperature: 5 to 9
Winds/Direction: 3 to 13, SE
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 1 to 3
Elkton Snow: 1 to 3
Friend’s Hut Snow: 1 to 3 -
Tonight
Low Temperature: -9 to -5
Winds/Direction: 3 to 13, N
Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1 -
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 8 to 12
Winds/Direction: 8 to 18, NW
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 0
Elkton Snow: 0
Friend’s Hut Snow: 0
Upper Slate River Valley
Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 02/03/2020
Name: Eric Murrow and Evan Ross
Subject: Upper Slate River Valley
Aspect: North, North East, East, South East, South
Elevation: 9000′ – 11350′
Avalanches:Â none observed
Weather: Snowfall started at about 1130 at the head of Slate River Valley. Accumulations reached about 2″ by 330pm at 9600′. While returning to trailhead at 4pm snowfall intensity ramped up to S2 for a short period presumably about the time of cold front passage. Winds blew 10 to 20 mph with occasional stronger gusts from the southwest. The new snow was easily transported around.
Snowpack: Ascended solar aspects and found substantial melt/freeze crusts on S and SE aspects up through high point at 11350′. Crusts on due south were up to 5cm and fairly hard supportive to skis. Southeast crusts were around 3cm thick. Even east aspects developed thin, soft melt/freeze crusts this past weekend. South and southeast aspects through 11300′ do not look to pose a problem without a major loading event.
Poked around on a northeast-facing slope at 11300 that is susceptible to wind impact and found a snow height a bit over 200cm. Around 30cm deep, there were two interfaces that produced planar results but did not propagate in long column test; failures were on lightly faceted grains. The midpack at this location lacked any concerning interfaces and was quite dense up to pencil hard. Only superficially examined lower snowpack, but no obvious weakness was present while probing.
Mountain Weather For 11,000FT
Date: 02/03/2020
Today will start out with mild temperatures and gusty southwest winds. Cloud cover will continue to build early this morning ahead of the low-pressure system just to our west in Utah. Model runs continue to show modest snow accumulations with possibly a few short bursts of heavy snow during frontal passage. Snowfall totals today will range from 3 to 5 inches across the forecast area. Winds will be strong up high through the middle part of the day from the southwest but will relax once the flow turns to the northwest in the afternoon. Expect high temperatures to happen early in the day before the passage of the front. Snowfall will begin just before lunch and continue through about sunset. Snowfall after sunset will be light and favor areas in the Ruby range as the flow turns northwesterly.
Snowfall will linger into Tuesday under northwest flow but accumulations look light. Wednesday looks to be a dry day before a moist northwest flow sets up over Colorado for the second half of the week. This system might produce healthy accumulations for areas to the west and north of town that are best situated for northwest flow events from about Thursday through Saturday. Let’s all do a snow dance, cross our fingers and toes then maybe the system at the end of the week will provide a few legitimate powder days!
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Today
High Temperature: 23 to 27
Winds/Direction: 15 to 25, G50 SW transitioning to NW in afternoon
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 3 to 5
Elkton Snow: 3 to 5
Friend’s Hut Snow: 3 to 5 -
Tonight
Low Temperature: -4 to 0
Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, WNW
Sky Cover: Overcast
Irwin Snow: 0 to 2
Elkton Snow: 0 to 2
Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1 -
Tomorrow
High Temperature: 4 to 8
Winds/Direction: 5 to 15, E
Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1