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Courtesy Photo |
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This is a photo of a shallow slab that propagated impressive distances on the December 13th facet layer, near Purple Palace. Photo credit: Aaron Huckstep |
![]() |
Courtesy Photo |
![]() |
This is a photo of a shallow slab that propagated impressive distances on the December 13th facet layer, near Purple Palace. Photo credit: Aaron Huckstep |
Current Data
Surface:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/
https://avalanche.state.co.us/obs_stns/stns.php
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=CO&rawsflag=3
Schofield SNOTEL: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=737
Upper-air soundings:
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/
Radar & Satellite:
http://www.weathertap.com ($84/yr, great mobile website as well)
Discussions
NWS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=CO&prodtype=discussion
OpenSnow: http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado
CAIC: http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/weather/zone-forecast/
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com
Forecast Models: Twisterdata.com
Top Center
NAM = 84hr 12km resolution
GFS = 384hr 27km resolution
RAP = 18hr 13km resolution
Left Side
700mb = orographic wind direction
500mb = vorticity
300mb = jet stream
Upper Right
Clickable map = one forecast image
Animated loop = all forecast images
Compare models = toggle between each model
dProg/dt = see the trend in the forecasts
Forecast Models: CAIC
High-resolution version of the NAM model
Graphics: http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/weather/model-forecasts/
Points: http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/weather/point-forecasts/
Forecast Models: Weatherbell.com
Access to European model graphics and many other models. Fantastic data. $185/year
Name: Donny Roth
Location:Â Snodgrass
Date of Observation: 12/27/2014
Aspect: East, South East
Elevation: 9500-10500
Weather: Few Clouds (mostly convective near high peaks), Calm winds, 4ºF @ 1200 & 10ºF @ 1500
Snowpack: Snow surface DFs going to facets, Ski Pen 10cm, Boot Pen 60cm; HS 70 to 100cm. Widespread, faint whumpfing on flats, no cracking, some noticeable collapsing. Snow cat triggered avalanche on road cut (D1) on 37º degree SE aspect. CTs and RBs produced clean, clear results (mostly CTMs and an RB3 and RB4 – this was a Level I avy course) on “Dec. 13th” interface, now about 50cm down from surface.
Avalanches: Let’s stay heads up. RLB got shredded and the ski quality is excellent right now. The new snow since Dec. 13 is pretty “right side up,” offering solid support while skiing. But that interface is shit. I think confidence levels will go up faster than the problem goes away. In my opinion, all north aspects and any slope with bigger consequences should be approached cautiously and conservatively.
Date: 12/28/2014
The next storm to affect our area is moving in from the northwest today. This shortwave trough will bring snow and more cold artic air to northern Colorado this morning, before moving into our area and central Colorado this evening. Snowfall associated with this storm will be best tonight and Monday as additional shortwave energy continues to carve out a large trough over the Northern Rockies. Also, orographics will likely play a roll in the western portion of the Elk Mountains where we’ll see the highest snowfall amounts. Weather forecasters and us avalanche geeks are getting exited about this artic air and the potential for some vary low density powder.
High Temperature: 14
Wind Speed: 10-20 G35
Wind Direction: W
Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
Snow: 0-2″
Low Temperature: -3
Wind Speed: 10-20 G35
Wind Direction: W
Sky Cover: Overcast
Snow: 2-5
High Temperature: 10
Wind Speed: 5-15
Wind Direction: SW, W
Sky Cover: Overcast
Snow: 2-5
Name: Jafar Tabaian
Title: Trees South of Coney’s
Date of Observation: 12/27/2014
Aspect: North East, East
Elevation: 10,500
Avalanches: @10,500 NE facing slope with 35-37 degree slope. This is below tree-line about 200ft below ridge, further south of the main coney’s area. Looked to be natural and fractured at the tree-line. Failed at 30cm (12in) on pre-christmas storm crust. Although the it failed relatively wide across the slope it did not step down to persistent slab and stopped on a bench about 100ft down slope. Low end of the destructive scale.
Weather: Clear, wind picking up through out the day on ridge top. Cold, -1 F. A lot of facets forming in the shade.
Snowpack: Skied a few laps on convex corner and fist bowl, no signs of instability while skiing. There was significant wind loading across the upper section of the slope. Did get a propagating crack on a steeper (~35 degree) NE wind loaded aspect, but nothing moved.
Uploads:
Name: Zach Guy and Evan Ross
Title: Mt. Owen avalanche
Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 12/27/2014
Aspect: North East, East
Elevation: 12,900 feet.
Avalanches: Checked out the avalanche on Mt. Owen that occurred around 12/22. It looks like there were 3 sympathetic slides (probably not connected), each about 600 feet wide, the largest of them running 1900 vertical feet into Robinson Basin. The crown was generally 100 to 150 cm deep, failed on December 13th facet layer, which was generally about 80 cm above the ground, except for the shallow rocky areas, where the layer was close to the ground (
Weather: Arctic cold!! Calm winds in the bowl, light snow transport off of the ridgetop. Few clouds.
Snowpack: 6 to 10″ of fresh snow from Christmas storm, over denser, wind stiffened surface left at the end of the Solstice storm. Minimal signs of instability in this new snow; just a few very thin and narrow slab releases and a handful of loose snow avalanches.
Uploads:
Name: ADB
Location:Â Gothic Road
Date of Observation: 12/27/2014
Aspect: North East, South East, West
Elevation: ATL, BTL, TL
Avalanches: Gothic Mountain: Observed loose snow slides on SE aspects emanating below all cliff bands. These slides occurred prior to last snowfall. Danger scale up to D2.
East of Gothic Townsite, observed one natural slab avalanche, that appeared to be an R2 on a west face ATL. . Could have occurred during last snow cycle. Too far to determine if it was hard or soft slab.
BTL on Snodgrass on east facing slope, observed one area with rollers.
Weather: Cold in the morning. Mostly sunny and no wind.
Date: 12/27/2014
Our mountains will see dryer conditions today with mostly cloudy sky’s as the slow moving low pressure trough flattens and heads east. This evening and tomorrow winds will increase as another low pressure system drop south and begins affecting central Colorado Sunday evening. This system will likely only bring light snowfall to our area, but a better snowfall producer may be in store for the middle of next week.
High Temperature: 14
Wind Speed: 5-15
Wind Direction: W, NW
Sky Cover:Â Partly Cloudy
Snow: 0-1
Low Temperature: -5
Wind Speed: 5-15 G30
Wind Direction: W
Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
Snow: 0
High Temperature: 15
Wind Speed: 10-20 G30
Wind Direction: SW, W
Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
Snow: 0-2
Name: ADB
Location:Â Coney’s
Date of Observation: 12/26/2014
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 9,600 to 10,600
Avalanches: Tested a short slope along the valley bottom on a convexity with slope around 30 degrees. No cracking or whomping resulted There were no signs of instability on the skin track to the ridge either. We observed a coyote cross the entire bowl, about 400 feet below the ridgeline and no avalanches resulted.
Observed natural loose slides along most of the Schuchyll ridgeline.. These slides emanated at cliff bands and were observed on east to southeast aspects. Appeared to be D2’s. Looked like they have occurred before the most recent snow.
Weather: Mostly cloudy with a slight breeze on the ridge. Visibility was excellent.
Snowpack: First ones in this area today. The skin track had less than 2 inches on it. Snow depths from recent accumulations (last 48 hours) ranged between 6 and 8 inches.
Name: Evan Ross
Location:Â Mt Emmons
Date of Observation: 12/26/2014
Aspect: South East, South
Elevation: 9,000 to 11,300
Weather: Mostly cloudy, a few S-1 snow squalls, calm wind at BTL and NTL elevations.
Snowpack: Enough solar today for a soft and thin sun crust to form on south slopes over 30 degrees. At 11, 300ft, HS 110, 12/13 interface was down 60cm. Sitting on top of that 12/13 sun crust interface was 10cm of F hard snow, likely NSF. Above this poor structure was the solstice storm and more recent storm events with a slab at its base of 1f to F at the surface. A very quick and singular test was CT14 RP on the NSF. No collapsing or other obvious signs to instability while traveling on these slopes up to 32 degrees. At 11,700ft and just above treeline on a SE ridge, there was no recent signs of wind transported snow in the last 24hr.