Date: 12/27/2015

We will start out with bitterly cold temperatures this morning in the valleys and slightly warmer temperatures above 10,000 feet. Light easterly winds at ridge top in the morning will ease and become more light and variable as a strengthening dome of high pressure builds into the region. A small chance of snow Monday and Tuesday at higher elevations, but the system is moisture starved. Question now becomes how strong the high pressure will become and how long the high pressure will last…

Date: 12/26/2015

The tail end of yesterday’s storm fizzled, bringing only a few inches of snow to our zone. Temperatures across our mountains are all subzero this morning under light northerly winds. Its -16*F in town. Brrr. Pack an extra puffy today: we’ll warm to single digits in the mountains. The trough that brought us a white Christmas has split, with a closed low in development over Southern Arizona. This leaves us out of the storm track and away from strong gradient flow over the next few days. This equates to dry weather and temperatures plunging below seasonal norms through the weekend.

Date: 12/25/2015

Merry White Christmas! A low centered over the Four Corners region is driving strong southwest flow and deep moisture into our region. The storm is on track to produce significant snowfall today, as a cold front and cold air advection create additional instability as the day progresses. A pulse that produced snowfall rates up to 4″ per hour in the San Juans is headed our way shortly, with a dryer slot in its wake.  Temperatures plummet tonight as flow swings more northerly. Light snow showers continue into Saturday.

Date: 12/24/2015

We’ll see a brief lull in action this morning before the next Pacific wave moves in tonight. Winds will increase out of the southwest, gusting into the 40’s or 50’s above treeline. It is going to be a white Christmas. Deep moisture and strengthening jet support aloft arrive with the trough, bringing decent snowfall to our zone beginning tonight. Flow initially begins from the southwest, putting some uncertainty in our snow numbers, but as it shifts to the west-southwest, orographics become more favorable.  Look for 10″ to 15″ of new snow by the end of Christmas day in the mountains

Date: 12/23/2015

Well, the weather forecast actually verified and we weren’t skunked again! The first major winter storm will get one final push of moisture that will increase snow coverage around mid day for a quick 2-4″, but higher terrain could still see continuing light to moderate orographic snowfall into the afternoon, and through the next several days. Winds will be gusty today but should slowly taper at all elevations tonight. Look for clear skies during the day on Thursday, before another storm takes aim on Colorado Christmas Eve night. Santa will need Rudolph’s nose this year!

Date: 12/22/2015

Overnight and through today we have all the ingredients of a major winter storm (the first of a series this week) coming together. The “left exit region” of a 160 knot jet stream will punch the Elk Mountains square in the nose, bringing significant upper level support to a cold, ultra saturated atmosphere hovering near seasonal extremes for moisture content. Add in 13,000 foot mountains for added lift and we have the makings of a doozy. Snow could be fairly dense, and the winds will average 10-20 mph but gust into the 50 mph range closer to timberline. Look for snow to taper tonight into tomorrow, only to intensify Wednesday afternoon through Christmas Day.

Date: 12/21/2015

Yesterday’s snow accumulations far exceeded forecasted amounts with a fairly wide range of accumulations reported across the area. Several factors came together yesterday to create more lift then expected as we saw some high snowfall rates. A quick moving disturbance will be exiting our area this morning, kind of like a small wiggle in the flow. We’ll stay in westerly flow after this disturbance but will lose much of the instability in its wake, relying more solely on orographic snowfall this afternoon. So we should be seeing light snow showers or a break in the weather around mid-day today. Heading into Tuesday things really get exciting as the Jet Stream moves over head. Bringing a good tap of moisture on westerly flow while creating good instability. So we’ll have moisture, lots of lift, and good orographic flow. That means snow folks!

Date: 12/20/2015

A small trough will bring a return to light snow showers today. Winds last night were forecasted to be fairly strong above treeline and those westerly winds will continue today. A few other very small disturbances or wiggles in the flow will keep us in unsettled weather heading toward Tuesday. Around the Tuesday time frame, the jet stream moves over Colorado while pulling in good pacific moisture. Snowfall accumulations will start ramping up with the arrival of the jet and this moisture.

Date: 12/19/2015

A the high pressure ridge axis moves east of us today, we will see warm southwest flow ahead of the first in a series of Pacific waves. Mountain temperatures will climb into the 30’s above valley inversions today with clear skies. Tomorrow, a poorly organized cold front swings in from the northwest, bringing showery snowfall beginning midday. Accumulations should be less than a few inches by sunset. Unsettled weather continues early next week before a more powerful system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. Details to come.

Date: 12/18/2015

High pressure is rebuilding over Colorado, bringing clear skies and rebounding temperatures through Saturday. Temps have already risen 10 degrees overnight in town, and we should see them reach the mid to upper 20’s today in the mountains and into the 30’s tomorrow under warm air advection. A series of Pacific waves will begin to impact our region beginning late Saturday night. Sunday’s system looks poorly organized, but it will signal the start of a snowy week.