Date: 12/20/2016

A nice inversion has set up overnight with valley low temperature in Crested Butte at -15 while low temperature at 11,000 feet are much warmer around 20 degrees. We’ll see these valley temps rebound today and the 11,000 temperature rise slightly into the high 20’s. There is nothing to exciting going on in our weather forecast during the work week. We’ll see some building clouds tomorrow morning as a week trough brings the chance for a couple inches of snow to northern Colorado. Then we should see clearing skys Thursday into Friday before Santa Claus brings the next winter storm. We have few details and currently lots of variability with this weekend’s storm so we’ll have to wait for models to come into better agreement to talk those details.

Date: 12/19/2016

Dry and cold conditions are the name of the game for the start of this week. It’s -22 in CB this morning with cold air pooling in the valleys, but if you climb into the mountains at 11,000ft, the low temp is closer to 0. We’ll see high temperatures rebound into the twenties over with calm conditions over the next couple of days before clouds increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of a weak shortwave trough passing to our north. Northern Colorado should eek our a few inches while central Colorado looks to be mostly dry. Had you chosen to live in North Dakota you would have a better snow forecast, but instead you chose to live in Crested Butte. The latter part of the week looks dry again before a return to stormy weather on Friday or Saturday. We’ll have to wait for later forecast models for details about this event.

Date: 12/18/2016

Cold is the name of the game today as northwest flow keeps our mountains blanketed in an arctic airmass. Valley temps are hovering around -10 this morning, and it’s only 5 to 15 degrees warmer in the mountains. If those temps aren’t cold enough, head over to Taylor Park, where the mercury is dipping towards -20. Temperatures will barely climb into the single digits today under partly cloudy skies. Looking ahead, a dry, warming trend will carry us through Monday and Tuesday. A shortwave on Tuesday night brings a quick shot of snow, and then a more powerful Pacific trough takes aim for the end of the work week.

Date: 12/17/2016

Last night’s cold front swept through last night and delivered an additional 8″ to 12″+ since sunset, with extreme alpine gusts from 60 to 100 mph. A cold airmass is filling in behind today. Radar shows snow showers upstream to the Colorado/Utah border, so we’ll see at least a few more hours of decent snow before drier air begins moving in on the back side of yesterday’s vicious trough. The jet stream is lifting to the northeast, and winds have already graciously eased relative to last night’s strong to extreme alpine winds.

Date: 12/16/2016

We will see the snow continue to fall and temperatures remain above normal until an abrupt cold front this evening (9-10pm) spikes snowfall rates to what some models are showing 4 inches/hour for a short period of time. This cold front will usher in colder arctic air, turn the powerful upper level winds to the northwest with gusts into the 40-50mph range, and intensify snowfall into the night. Tomorrow morning, look for snowfall to wane, as dry, arctic air invades, but looks possible the Elk Mountain spine holds onto orographic and cold air advection generated snow a little longer than lower elevations.

Date: 12/15/2016

We will see a short gasp of dry air this morning before unseasonably warm, southwesterly flow ushers in the main event. Temperatures at 5am are already in the upper 20s, and look to approach the upper 30s today. Heavy snowfall will start very warm, even potentially as R A I N below 10,000ft (we’re talking Crested Butte), before a sharp cold front acts as gas on the moist atmospheric fire and cranks the snow tomorrow before clearing out Saturday morning. Precipitation models are getting excited about this recipe, and while they may be going a bit heavy on the pinks and purples, 1-2 feet of snow look likely, with the potential for some impressive totals in the usual places (Schofield and Kebler Passes) by midday Saturday.

Date: 12/14/2016

A skiff of snow fell overnight. A stationary front is parked just north of our forecast area, inhibiting favorable dynamics for snowfall. As moisture deepens through the day under west-southwest flow, we should see a couple inches of accumulation, favoring the Elk Divide to the northeast of town. Gusty alpine winds will accompany any new snow. Get excited for a powdery weekend ahead. A trough tapping into warm Pacific moisture approaches the Elks on Thursday. The first phase of the storm on Friday will be unusually warm, with the rain/snow line creeping near or above our valley floor. A strong cold front boosts dynamics and brings better snowfall production to all elevations on Friday night. Upwards of two feet of snow could accumulate by Saturday.

Date: 12/13/2016

Colorado remains in strong, westerly flow through most of the work week. Radar shows a lull in precipitation upstream of us in Utah and the next pulse of moisture moving onshore over California. Today, we’ll see mid to high level clouds and continued alpine winds with a few snow showers developing tonight. Deepening moisture will fuel a stronger pulse of snowfall tomorrow afternoon accompanied by strengthening winds. A large, closed low is lined up to deliver significant snowfall beginning Thursday night. Stay tuned.

Date: 12/12/2016

Elevated winds and cloudy sky will be the theme for the next couple days as Colorado sits under westerly flow. This westerly flow has enough moisture to fuel chances of light snow showers on Monday and Tuesday and keep mostly cloudy sky overhead. Expect continued blowing snow at higher elevations and strong wind gusts. We still have a couple of good chances at snowfall this week, with the next round impacting Colorado starting on Tuesday night and our area a little closer to Wednesday. This looks to be another warm, dense snow producer like last weekend’s storm. Then we’ll close out the week with another large storm arriving Friday evening with what should be colder temperatures and lighter snow.

Date: 12/16/2016

Our forecast area is just a bit to far south for the current storm as we are currently sitting behind in the previously predicted overnight snow numbers. Around I-70 and into northern Colorado are currently doing well and near their predicted overnight snow numbers. We still have a few hours to see accumulating snow before drier air begins working in and ending snow showers by mid-day Sunday. The mountains west and north of Crested Butte may see some lingering light orographic snow showers lasting later in the day. We’ll also see some decrease in cloud cover this afternoon into tomorrow but still expect mostly cloudy skys during this period.
Monday will be a lull in weather as we await the next surge of moisture to arrive Tuesday evening, with continued mild temperatures during this period. We’ll look into snow numbers for this next system tomorrow morning. Looking further ahead, the end of next week looks like we’ll see another weather system and more snow.