Date: 04/08/2017

Last night was downright balmy with overnight freezing levels near 12,000ft and partly cloudy sky. We could see a couple hours of sun this morning poking through partly cloudy sky, then clouds will thicken through they day. I’d expect some more green housing through the clouds creating a warm feel, and high temperatures near or just below yesterdays. Southwest winds will remain strong and gusty as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a low presser trough to our northwest. Moister associated with this flow may bring some high level showers today that will mostly evaporate before anything hits the ground. Temperatures should begin cooling tonight ahead of an arriving cold front as moister wrapping around the foot of the low pressure trough increases to our north. We should see a few inches of new snow overnight but the main event will be to our north. Sunday looks to remain overcast and breezy with a drying trend starting in the afternoon. Next week will remain dry with the next small disturbance looking to be around Wednesday.

Date: 04/07/2017

A band of high thin clouds passed through last night while temperatures in the 10-12k elevation range stayed near freezing with below freezing temperatures in the valleys. Winds are on the increase from the southwest as a low pressure system system is spinning moister into the western US. This change to southwest flow has opened the door for increasing temperatures into Saturday. With an increase in temperatures today, we should also see increasing cloud cover this afternoon. A bank of clouds is currently stalled out over western Utah and they should start moving into Colorado today. As this low pressure system moves north of Colorado on Saturday/Saturday night, its looking like we could get a few inches of snow accumulation. Then dryer weather will begin moving back in on Sunday.

Since we have been wrong on the last few spring storms, forecasting new snow and then getting skunked, I hope I’m wrong on this one and it just dumps for closing day at CBMR! With rain in Gunnison of course, so that the trails melt out.

Date: 04/07/2017

A ridge of high pressure centered over the desert southwest is moving our way, bringing warm air and a steady trickle of high thin clouds under a light westerly flow. We can expect high temperatures around 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, along with the typical-for-spring uptick in afternoon winds.
The ridge axis crosses over us late today, ushering in a warm southwest flow tonight into tomorrow. Friday will be even warmer, with increasing clouds in advance of a small storm on track for Saturday night into Sunday.

Date: 04/05/2017

Yesterday’s storm was like a bad houseguest. It didn’t bring much and stayed too long. Up in the high country, there was a lot of pomp and show as the squalls lingered, but in the end, new snow totals only ranged from 3-4 inches in the western part of the zone, with 6 inches in upper Taylor Park.
Now the western US sits under a broad ridge of dry high pressure for the next couple days. Today promises lots of sun and a quick rebound to warm temperatures with a fresh breeze from the Northwest. Tonight we’ll see a strong freeze, and Thursday high temperatures will creep above normal as the flow turns westerly.

Date: 04/04/2017

Our last spring storm for a little while is currently tracking through northern New Mexico, on it’s way to Oklahoma. If you look outside the Gunnison Valley, you’ll see overnight reports of several inches of snow throughout western Colorado, while around our neighborhood we picked up only a trace in town, one inch at Irwin and two inches in Taylor Park.

As this system moves further east today and closes off, our chances for snow will dwindle. Today, look for a few last gasps from this storm before noon, possibly with a spurt or two of moderate snowfall, followed by a drying trend taking hold this afternoon that will last until the weekend.

The one caveat with this storm is that the weather models are all over the place and there is a low probability of picking up close to a foot along the crest of the Elk Range. If you’re headed to the high country keep in mind the possibility of a brief intense squall later this morning.

Date: 04/03/2017

A fast moving shortwave trough of low pressure moved through the area overnight, dropping 3-6” of 10% density snow across the Elk Mountains. Today we will see increasing clouds throughout the day ahead of a significant storm set to produce accumulating snow late this afternoon, intensifying overnight into Tuesday. West winds are not looking all that impressive at the moment, but watch for an uptick of winds as this storm arrives. Temperatures should remain on the chilly side today, and fall throughout this storm as cold air slips down from Canada. Enjoy the snow, as a very strong ridge of high pressure, and warm temperatures look to arrive Wednesday.

Date: 04/02/2017

Clearing skys this morning will allow that strong spring sun to pop out and offer up a great time to get out into the mountains. Ridgeline winds will moderate from the northwest. A small short wave trough will move though early this evening bringing increasing clouds this afternoon and another dusting of snow. New snow accumulating will vary from localized convective bursts as is typical during spring storms. Monday will bring another brief loll in weather before a low pressure trough turns on the snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Southwest flow during the Monday-Tuesday timeframe looks to bring around a foot of snow to the 11,000ft elevation. A ridge of high pressure will start trying out the weather by Wednesday.

Date: 04/01/2017

We will see partly cloudy skies this morning become mostly cloudy this afternoon, fueled by daytime heating and convection. Scattered snow showers will develop this afternoon, with another possibility of a stray clap of thunder. Winds could become gusty at times with these snow showers. Sunday looks dry, with increasing westerly winds in the afternoon, before Monday’s significant storm arrives.

Date: 03/31/2017

A large amount of uncertainty exists with this current storm system. As with most closed low pressure systems, they have spun off the main jet stream and behave like a spinning top across the continent. This low pressure has a wobble, and we will have to wait and see what we get. Last night, models suggested the low moving farther south than predicted 12 hours previously, leaving Aspen and Vail out of the snow. Currently, our area looks to have been left out also. I’m not counting it a full skunk yet, as lower elevations will eventually moisten and allow precipitation to fall today. Currently (6am) and overnight, snow levels hovered around 10,000ft, and McClure Pass is reporting a steady cold rain. We should not expect much out of this storm anymore as the closed low will now direct east-southeasterly winds across our area, very unproductive orographic forcing. Temperatures will climb to the mid 30s, and those southerly winds should be ripping near and above treeline today.

Another storm system looks to impact the area once again, before a stronger ridge of high pressure moves overhead for the rest of the work week. Soon we will be ripping single track and climbing Taylor Canyon stone, but for now, enjoy what snow does fall!

Date: 03/30/2017

We will see another warm, spring-like day across our forecast area with temperatures approaching the 40º mark at 11,000 feet. Southwest winds should remain light through much of the day before ramping into the 30-40mph range later this afternoon ahead of our next Pacific storm arriving late tonight. Tomorrow’s storm looks promising at the moment, with potentially 12”+ of new snow for the higher elevations.  Stay tuned as details solidify throughout the day.