Mountain Weather

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 11/30/2016

We’ll see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies today under chilly and dry northwest flow. A shortwave trough drops out of the northwest tonight, increasing cloud cover tomorrow and spreading light snow showers to the Elk Mountains by tomorrow night. Look for a few inches out of this system. The storm track dives to our south this weekend keeping the weather unsettled but little in the way of snow accumulations.

Thanksgiving and avalanches

CB Avalanche CenterAvi Blog, Avi-Off-Season

Thanksgiving and avalanches. By Zach Guy


Shooting cracks are a sign that the snowpack might have taken a few too many scoops of mashed potatoes and stuffing.

It has been a wonderfully warm and dry fall, which is hard to complain about. But if we can be brutally honest with the weather gods, fall really was starting to wear out its welcome, and we are happy to open the door to winter. There’s nothing quite like surfing over powder, so it’s time to dust off those skis, find your beacon, shovel, and probe, and start tuning into our daily avalanche reports.

Early season skiing and riding comes with some challenges and risks. The snow coverage is still quite shallow, so striking rocks and logs are tough to avoid and they can end your season pretty quickly. My strategies include getting on the fattest skis I can find, riding like a gaper in the backseat, and using releasable bindings in case my tips dive under a log or rock. I’ve seen a few too many broken tib-fibs from early season riding. And of course, we all want to go to where the snowpack is deepest, which can open the doors to another scary threat: avalanches. This time of year, the slopes holding deep and continuous coverage often carry the greatest risk of triggering an avalanche. It is almost impossible to go through fall without a shallow, crusty, and faceting foundation forming on the ground. Then once we start building a deeper snowpack, it creates a persistent slab avalanche problem above these layers.


Skier triggered slides in Red Lady Bowl

I like analogies, so let’s compare our current year’s snowpack to your most recent Thanksgiving celebration. You probably avoided food all day, maybe even went for a turkey trot to work up an appetite in preparation for the big feast. A significant drought, indeed. That left you weak and frail, just like the lingering snowpack layers that survived our fall drought. Then once dinner time (i.e. winter time) rolled around, you started off at a decent pace. Snacked on some hor devoirs, some salad, maybe some of your Uncle’s famous deviled eggs or your Grandma’s bean dip. Our first few storms behaved in similar fashion, fairly small and steady loads, with a handful of isolated avalanches. Nothing too scary yet. Then it is dinner time: you go for the mash potatoes, stuffing, turkey, green bean casserole, and of course drown it all under gravy. Extra rolls? Why not? Whammo. That’s a heavy load, just like our last storm, which dumped almost 2 feet in places. Both scenarios are dangerous. You could collapse on the couch just as easily as you could collapse those fragile weak layers near the ground. During and after the storm, we saw both natural and skier triggered avalanches, some quite large and surprisingly wide. As of Tuesday night, I’m expecting we’ll see evidence of a lot more avalanche activity as we get better visibility over the next few days. So tread carefully out there, and check the avalanche report before you go out. So what’s next for our snowpack? Does it reach for another plateful of mashed potatoes before slamming down some pumpkin pie and faceplanting onto the floor? Or does it slowly nibble at the leftover turkey and try to stay awake for family charades? Only the weather can dictate that one. But you can be the captain of your risks by making rational decisions and practicing your rescue skills. Is it a coincidence that this Friday night is our Annual Avalanche Awareness Night, with the theme “Human Factors and Decision Making”? Or that Saturday is our annual Beacon Brushup, a free and valuable opportunity to dial in your rescue skills for the winter? I think not. See you there!

Red Lady Avalanche

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 11/29/2016
Name: Tony Martin
Subject: Red Lady Avalanche
Aspect: South East
Elevation: Above treeline

Avalanches: Saw 2 skiers thru my telescope on top red Lady at 11:40 AM. First skier triggered a large avalanche after appx. 10 turns that ran from appx. 50 yards below the summit down to the flatter area / several hundred yards below the summit. It broke slightly above and 20 yards skiers right of the skier (skier not caught).
Hard to tell from here how wide it was from here, but guesstimating 75 to 100 yards in width
Weather:
Snowpack:

Avalanches around Crested Butte Area

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 11/29/2016
Name: Zach Guy
Subject: Avalanches around Crested Butte Area
Aspect: North East, South East
Elevation: Above treelin

Avalanches: See photos. 2 large natural slab avalanches that ran sometime during the storm on NE aspects above treeline, Mt. Emmons and Mt. Axtell, both failing at the ground in old snow layers. Both showed impressive propagation considering relatively thin slabs. 2 slab avalanches that occurred mid-day on SE aspect ATL of Red Lady, apparently remotely triggered by a skier. These presumably failed on a crust or crust facet layer from that formed last week, either at the storm interface or just below it.
Weather: Clearing skies allowed views of peaks near town.
Snowpack: No avalanche activity observed on any of the N/BTL paths near town, but they now appear to have a smooth and continuous snow cover for future weak layer/bedsurfaces

Mt. Axtell. NE Aspect ATL.  SS-N-R2-D2-O/G
Mt. Emmons.  NE Aspect ATL  N-SS-R1-D1.5-O/G
Mt. Emmons, SE Aspect ATL.  SS-ASr/y-R1-D2-U

Mountain Weather

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 11/29/2016

Colorado is now in the backside of the trough that brought significant snowfall since Sunday morning. Radar is picking up a few waning showers upstream of us, and northwest to north orographics could wring out a final inch or two, but you snow dancers can take a breather for the moment. The next trough is fast on its heels, digging into the Great Basin this Friday. Between now and then, we’ll be sitting in a cold, gradually drying air mass.

Pittsburgh Obs

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 11/28/2016
Name: Alex Banas
Subject: Pittsburgh Obs
Aspect: South, South West, West
Elevation: 9,500′-10,500′

Avalanches:
Weather: Overcast skies Snowing S1 throughout the day with moderate to strong wind gusts out of the W, NW.
Snowpack: West, Southwest aspect near near treeline in the paradise divide showed decent coverage with the HS varying from 50-90cm. Storm totals overnight looked to be 20-25cm. The new snow was bonding well within the storm snow. Tests show failures on facets below a thin melt freeze crust. Steady winds throughout the day stiffened the new slab from F to 4F- 75cm down to the crust.

9,600′ SW 34* slope
HS; 90. CT 13 SC ECTP 9 SC
Both tests failed 75cm down, below a melt freeze crust. Test slope collapsed while exiting.

Anthracites/Irwin Tenure

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 11/28/2016
Name: Ian Havlick
Subject: Anthracites/Irwin Tenure
Aspect: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West, West
Elevation: 10,000-11200

Avalanches: did not travel ATL, or on slopes steeper than 33º today, saw no avalanches, cracking, or collapsing.
Weather: Mid morning broken skies with spotty sun gave way to afternoon pulse with moderate snow showers becoming heavier and steadier throughout afternoon to sunset. Light to moderate west to north winds, especially on exposed ridgelines near treeline. Temperatures remained cold, with high of 16.
Snowpack: 21″ storm snow as of sunset, with 1.7″ SWE. Snow fell right-side up, lighter density snow falling on top as temps continued to plummet into late afternoon when we finished tour. Winds were actively transporting snow into 3-5 foot drifts. Nearer to treeline, wind was stiffening upper 10-12″ snow into a noticeably stiffer slab. Lots of terrain texture, downed trees, rocks, etc BTL…didnt seem like much avalanche concern in this type of terrain yet…

Dug several pits. On a 33º WSW facing slope, around 10,800ft, the nov. 21 facets were apparent and reactive with repeatable ECT failing on isolation.

On north facing, BTL, 25º slope in Anthracites, found 2 distinct layers of 3-4mm surface hoar 30cm from ground, ECTP17 RP. Digging on East bowl, found this surface hoar again–could be an issue with stiffening/settling slab in future?

IMG_0096
Screen-Shot-2016-11-28-at-6.03.17-PM
Screen-Shot-2016-11-28-at-6.08.50-PM

Gothic 7 a.m. report

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 11/28/2016
Name: billy barr
Subject: Gothic 7 a.m. report
Aspect:
Elevation:
Weather: Totals for the past 24 hours are 15″ of snow with 0.96″ water of which 9″ and 0.59″ came sunset to sunrise today.

Snowing steady and moderate right now with snowpack at 18½”. Temp. is 14F. No visibility but no sound of any slide activity and down low here it is still safe. Higher up starting to get a little shaky (he says sitting in the warmth of his house and not going anywhere near there). Wind 0-3 W. billy

Mountain Weather 11/28/2016

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 11/28/2016

There will be a break in the weather this morning as last night’s larger scale lift breaks down. We’ll still be sitting under northwest flow so clouds and some very light snow showers may continue in the mountains west of Crested Butte. The next wave of energy looks to arrive around mid-day. Snow showers should develop over the entire forecast area, but this wave will again favor the western and northern boundaries of our forecast area, thanks to northwest flow and orographics. Today’s total snow accumulations across the forecast area don’t look to impressive, especially compared to yesterday. Though I’ll put some higher numbers in the forecasted snow totals as orographics could really bump those snow numbers up in the favored Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide zones.
Mostly cloudy skys will persist on Tuesday with only a few lingering snow showers. The Crested Butte Area and further east will likely be mostly dry, while orographic will keep some snow showers going in those orographically favored area. Wednesday through Friday will see a continued drying weather pattern.