Weather Forecast for 11,000′

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/13/2018

We caught the southern end of a weak system that passed early last night to our north. A high-pressure ridge has developed leaving our area in a cold NW flow. Today’s temps will be in teens with NW winds decreasing throughout the day. Night time temperatures will be in the single digits with a slight warming trend tomorrow up to the mid ’20s. We will remain under a flat high-pressure ridge throughout the weekend with temps remaining in the teens, and light to moderate winds as the NW flow continues. Next possible chance for precipitation will be Mon/Tues. as a low pressure develops off the coast of Baja.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 10 to 15
    Winds/Direction: 10-20 NW
    Sky Cover: Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 0 to 5
    Winds/Direction: 0-5, NW
    Sky Cover: Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 20-25
    Winds/Direction: 5-10
    Sky Cover: Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Cement Creek Check In

CB Avalanche Center2018-19 Observations

Location: Cement Creek Area
Date of Observation: 12/11/2018
Name: Evan Ross

Subject: Cement Creek Check In
Aspect:
Elevation: 9,000-12,000

Avalanches:

Plenty of old avalanches to be seen from earlier this season at ATL/NTL/BTL elevations. Though, those avalanches are getting covered up and more difficult to detect with more recent snow and wind. Old Persistent Slab avalanches could be seen on west to north to easterly aspects. Southern aspects only had some old, smaller Wind Slab avalanches in the alpine.

Weather:
Snowpack: Traveled Cement Creek Rd to the end of the valley at 12,000. Not enough snow to want to get off the road via snowmobile and by the looks of things the skiing options were slim too. No signs of recreational travel this season in the upper Cement Creek area. In the lower Cement Creek drainage there wasn’t really enough snow for skiing in avalanche terrain. Moderate avalanche danger would hold for the area given heightened avalanche danger on specific terrain. That specific terrain would be wind-loaded areas. On the lee sides of ridgelines and in cross loaded terrain or gully features. Given what we know about the weather history and observations in other parts of the CBAC forecast area, these wind loaded terrain features would be suspect for the Persistent Slab avalanche problem as is currently highlighted on the avalanche bulletin.

Photos:

Swiss cheese

CB Avalanche Center2018-19 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 12/12/2018
Name: Than

Subject: Swiss cheese
Aspect: North, North East
Elevation: ATL, BTL

Avalanches:

None seen but it was milk jug in the valley

Weather: windy and snowy on the ridge and at treeline, calm and snowing lightly below treeline
Snowpack: Looking at the ridge from down valley, you could see it had been wind scoured on the south side. Denser wind effect on top of a snowpack that was 140 cm deep at treeline. Below treeline snowpack was light on top, denser in the middle and sitting on crap at the bottom. Appeared to be a buried surface hoar as well 10 or so cms down. Classic strong over weak structure. The swiss cheese comment comes from an old mentor of mine who pointed out that while the pack may look and feel good in a lot of spots, there are still holes in random areas and to always be aware. Thin crust on anything facing E/SE. Bottom part of pitch to the valley floor was still unconsolidated top to bottom in the pack and about 40 cms deep.

Photos:

Persistent Slab Structure on South and West

CBAC2018-19 Observations

Eleven Snowcat Terrain 12/11/18:

Notable collapses on South facing terrain,  Multiple ECTM results with Sudden Collapse failures indicating the potential for propagation. Snow profile on South had failures below a crust capping early season facets, while on West there was no crust but failure on same early season facets.

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/12/2018

Another changeable day today with cooler temperatures as clouds filter in this morning and snow begins this afternoon. We are in line for another quick shot of snow through the night before high pressure builds back in tomorrow evening.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 20
    Winds/Direction: West Northwest 15-25
    Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 1-3″
    Elkton Snow: 1-3″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 1-3″

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 0
    Winds/Direction: Northwest 15-2 mph, Gusting to 35 mph
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 2-4″
    Elkton Snow: 1-3″
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 1-3″

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 18
    Winds/Direction: Northwest 10-15 mph
    Sky Cover: Decreasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

Below treeline northerly slopes

CB Avalanche Center2018-19 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 12/11/2018
Name: Eric Murrow

Subject: Below treeline northerly slopes
Aspect: North, North East
Elevation: 9,500′ to 10,600′

Avalanches:

Spotted a fresh windslab on easterly aspects in Baldy south bowl, had a very tangent view of it, ran a couple hundred vertical, D1 in size.

Weather: Just under an inch of new snow this morning. Winds were pretty quiet at our below treeline location. Clouds decreased throughout the day.
Snowpack: HS throughout this tour ranged from 70 to 135cm. 70 to 90cm was about average for sheltered locations. Dug in two locations, one drifted 135cm and another more average HS of 80. The first location was 10,600, NNE(10*), 29* slope, HS135. The structure showed fist density surface quickly transition into 4finger and then 1finger+ density slab resting over 2 to 3mm advanced facets that were showing signs of rounding. Test results at this location were ECTP21 and PST 40/110 end on the oldest facets on ground.
The second location was at 10,000′, NE(45*), 34* slope, HS80. The slab in this location was weaker at 1f- hardness and obviously much thinner. Test result was ECTN23 on facets resting on ground. The faceted grains at the ground were showing signs of rounding.

Photos:

12/11 Fresh windslab on east aspect of Baldy south bowl

Schuylkill Ridge

CB Avalanche Center2018-19 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 12/11/2018
Name: TC

Subject: Schuylkill Ridge
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 9,200-11,400

Avalanches:

No new avalanches observed. Several small pockets in the upper half of the re-skin forest had slid (10-12 inch crowns) in the last couple of weeks.

Weather: Overcast and very light snow first thing in the morning; clearing to mostly sunny by mid-day. Calm winds with temps in the upper teens to lower 20s.
Snowpack: Overall, the snowpack seemed to be right side up. Pole probing as we ascended the lower benches below Snake in the Grass, revealed unconsolidated (on the verge of faceted) snow on top of a more firm base. Continuing our ascent, measured an HS of 85 cm mid-way up Runaway Ski. At the top of the re-skin, dug a profile pit at the entrance to Runaway (in the low saddle) and found an HS of 115 cm. The top 20 cm was fist hard new snow from the past couple of weeks; the middle 50 cm was a three-finger hard layer presumably from the Thanksgiving storm; the bottom 45 cm was 1-2 mm facets (to the ground). Only experienced one small collapse throughout the entire tour. Skied Yogis and the northern ridge of Thanksgiving Bowl, and the snowpack felt quite stable.

Photos:

Mountain Weather for 11,000ft

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/11/2018

A weak trough with minimal moisture is pushing across the area today. Temperatures at valley bottoms warmed up from yesterday with a less pronounced inversion. Today expect the chance for a few snowflakes in the morning with, at best, accumulations of an inch or so. The winds will be the bigger story for today. Winds will blow in the teens with gusts reaching higher. Gusting early this morning hit 40mph on Cinnamon and Scarp Ridge. As quickly as this system moved in, it will pass and leave our area under mostly clear skies for the night before the next approaching system on Wednesday. Wednesday’s system looks to be more productive with small accumulations across the forecast area.

  • Today

    High Temperature: 23 to 28
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20 G30, West
    Sky Cover: Decreasing clouds
    Irwin Snow: 0 to 1
    Elkton Snow: 0 to 1
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0 to 1

  • Tonight

    Low Temperature: 8 to 14
    Winds/Direction: 5 to 10, W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Clear
    Irwin Snow: 0
    Elkton Snow: 0
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 0

  • Tomorrow

    High Temperature: 23 to 28
    Winds/Direction: 10 to 20, W
    Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
    Irwin Snow: 1 to 3
    Elkton Snow: 1 to 3
    Friend’s Hut Snow: 1 to 3

Daisy Creek area

CB Avalanche Center2018-19 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 12/10/2018
Name: Eric Murrow

Subject: Daisy Creek area
Aspect: South East, South, South West, North West
Elevation: 9,600′ – 11,700′

Avalanches:

Lots of small wet activity in the area on sunny BTL slopes for previous days. No new slabs visible.

Weather: Beautiful day – cold in valley bottoms but significantly warmer on the ascent. Lots of sunshine and calm winds with an occasional light breeze.

Snowpack: Snow surfaces on SE,S, and SW became moist by 10am BTL and slightly moist on S around 1230 at treeline.

Poked two quick holes – first was below treeline at @ 10,850′ HS 123 (slightly drifted site, generally around 100cm) 11/22 interface was crust with Thanksgiving slab resting on top. Most notably was two melt-freeze crusts, one at the surface and another thin crust in top 20cms. ECTN at this location. The surface was a moist crust. Not much concern at the moment with this structure.

The second hole was on a south-facing slope at 11,700′, HS on this slope was a little more than a meter in general. Probing on ascent revealed weak faceted grains below Thanksgiving slab. Hasty pit structure looked poor for a south facing slope with 80cm slab resting on 2mm facets from early November snow. Probed on the descent and confirmed structure for the length of the 500′ vertical slope.

Photos: