Date: 02/25/2016

Northwest flow downstream of the stubborn high pressure ridge over the West Coast will bring mostly clear skies and a cool alpine breeze today. The ridge moves east on Friday, which should warm temperatures and ease winds a little. The ridge sags enough to allow a fast-moving shortwave system to bring increasing winds on Saturday and the chance for a few flurries on Saturday night. We look to be too far south for any good snowfall accumulation.

Date: 02/24/2016

Our persistent slab problem has found a worthy persistent opponent in the high pressure ridge stuck over the West Coast. Clear skies and a gradual warming trend is in store for this week as the high pressure slowly advances into the Great Basin through the rest of the work week. The ridge breaks down enough to allow a weak disturbance to push through on Saturday, but we are too far south to see any snow accumulate from this one.

Date: 02/23/2016

Well, we got skunked. Despite modern forecasting, sophisticated weather models and interpretation…sometimes there are still surprises. The 120 knot jet stayed to our west, bringing north to northeast flow aloft, not ideal orographics for snow production. Monarch however, is reporting 15” new this morning, an example of an area that does well with easterly winds. Look for clearing skies today and an increase of wind this afternoon as the tail end of the jet streak slides overhead. Looking ahead, Sunny skies from now until forever…or at least until March.

Date: 02/22/2016

Today will start with scattered clouds and quickly move to overcast skies with increasing wind. The first flakes should fall in the higher elevations around noon today. We will still have good northwesterly winds, but the jet support is not looking quite as ideal as previous model runs. What looked like a direct hit with the “left front quadrant” jet support, now looks a bit too far south and west of the Elks for greater enhancement. Temperatures are a bit on the warm-side (-5ºC), but still look good for dendritic snow growth around 10,000ft and above (ridgetop), especially late tonight when -10ºC air sinks into central Colorado. Snow totals look to be in the 3-6” range for most of our forecast area, with the mountains west of Crested Butte seeing close to 10” possible.

Date: 02/21/2016

Winds have calmed, and temperatures this morning look to sit in the single digits low in the valleys and low 20s above 10,000ft. We should see benign conditions today and tomorrow morning before high clouds, and increasing northwest winds ahead of a disturbance dropping out of the Pacific Northwest. While not a major winter storm, 4-8” up to 12” look possible for our deeper, western mountains as the storm carries good, strong jet support, cold temperatures, and good orographics. Boy we could use it.

Date: 02/20/2016

We’re under dry westerly flow today, which will bring plenty of sunshine and temperatures rising to the upper 30’s in the mountains. Flow shifts to the northwest overnight as several weak disturbance pass to our north, bringing more clouds and cooler temperatures into tomorrow. On Monday evening, the jet stream noses into Colorado, providing a better boost for snowfall. Models are hinting at 3-6″ of snow by Tuesday evening.

Date: 02/19/2016

The violent low pressure system and cold front has pushed on to New Mexico this morning, leaving clearing skies and merciful winds in its wake. Mountain temperatures are in the teens this morning, and we’ll see a gradual warming trend into the weekend as a series of transitory ridges and weak troughs pass across the West under zonal flow. The first weak disturbance arrives Saturday night, but it looks like it will only bring increased cloud cover and a few flurries at best.

Date: 02/18/2016

Batten down the hatches. We are in for some significant winds today at the front end of a fast-moving low pressure system moving on shore this morning. Winds have already mixed out the temperature inversions in the upper valley, with temperatures near 40 this morning in Crested Butte and remaining in the mid to upper 30’s in the mountains. We could see spotty snow showers today, but accumulating snowfall will mostly hold off until this evening, when a cold front pushes through just after sunset. A quick 1-4″ to should accumulate with frontal passage, and winds decreasing in its wake. Drier zonal flow sets up for the weekend.

Date: 02/17/2016

This morning, many valley locations look to be in the teens and single digits, while remote weather stations above 10,000ft hover in the 28-30ºF range at 0500. Today will be mild and clear, with increasing winds in the afternoon and throughout the night as a fast moving Pacific system barrels across the Great Basin and into western Colorado. This system is not looking to be a huge snow maker (3-6”), but winds look impressive at all elevations (50-80mph), and temperatures mild.

Date: 02/16/2016

The quick moving storm that brought a thin new coat of new paint across our area mountains, will depart, leaving sunshine and clearing skies to dominate the next few days. However, those pesky northwest winds gusting in to the 30s and 40s above treeline with stick with us. Temperatures will rise near 40º today, and 45º tomorrow under a strengthening southwest flow aloft. Strong southwest winds and our first dust event of the season look likely on Wednesday night and Thursday with gusts into the 80s at the highest elevations.