Date: 03/06/2016

We will wake up to a the same old view out our window, brown melted snowbanks, dry dirt and asphalt, but if all goes as predicted, tonight will look much different as we lay down our heads. A warm, southwesterly wind ahead of the incoming, and much anticipated trough will quickly usher in a rain/snow mix to lower valley locations this morning and a wet/graupelly snow to higher elevations. Tonight, this warm southwest flow will swap to the northwest, bringing better orographics to most of the mountains west and north of town. Models look a little excited, but hint at 5-10″ by Monday evening…with double that near Paradise Divide and Kebler Pass.

Date: 03/05/2016

Our weather continues to remain warm and dry today with high clouds overhead. Believe it or not, there is a change in this weather pattern coming tomorrow, as a low pressure system moves towards the west coast. This system will be pushing moisture over the western US bringing us increasingly cloudy skys on Sunday and the chance for some snow. Temperatures Sunday remain mild so we’ll likely not see much snow accumulation until a cold front arrives sometime around Sunday night. With southwest flow, increased available moisture, and decreasing temperatures we should have some new snow accumulations to talk about on Monday morning. Snow showers will decrease on Monday before stormier weather returns around Tuesday.

Date: 03/04/2016

We’ll see a mix of partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures over the next 24 hours as a weak ridge passes overhead. It now looks as though the dry and clear slot will pass overhead tonight, and clouds will begin to thicken tomorrow morning ahead of the next system, putting a damper on Saturday’s corn harvest. A large Pacific trough moves onshore on Sunday, but unfortunately it closes off and the energy splits around Colorado. Our best shot at snow is a shortwave trough leading this system. We’ll see potential for light snow showers developing on Sunday at the front end of the shortwave, followed by a boost in snowfall on Sunday night into Monday as the associated cold front sweeps through. We could see 4-8″ by Monday evening, although we’ll refine those numbers as this system gets closer.

Date: 3/3/16

Beautiful mountain weather is in store for today as a transitory ridge brings sunny skies with a few thin clouds and warm temperatures to the Elk Mountains. Clouds will increase again tonight as another shortwave rides north of our area. We should see a final brief clearing on Saturday morning as we happily wave goodbye to the east-bound high pressure ridge that has reigned supreme over our weather for the past month. The ridge’s departure opens the doors to a more active and snowy pattern. The first decent chance of snow arrives on Sunday.

Date: 03/02/2016

Shortwave disturbances will continue to pick away and nudge at the dominating Western U.S. high pressure ridge through the rest of the week, attempting to change or stagnant and dry weather pattern. A pattern change now appears to be on its way for next week. For today, the next shortwave will brush to our north, bringing mostly cloudy skies, gusty winds, and the chance for a few snow flurries. Weak ridging rebuilds tonight with enough embedded moisture for some high level clouds tomorrow.

Date: 03/01/2016

Unsettled weather will continue this week as a series of fast moving but weak shortwaves over ride the west coast ridge. We can expect partly to mostly cloudy skies, cool temperatures, moderate winds, but no significant snowfall accumulations for the next few days. The best chance for clear skies will be during a transitory ridge on Thursday.

Date: 02/29/2016

We will see a change in the weather as a cold front will swing into Colorado this afternoon and evening. Expect a quick couple inches accompanied by gusty west winds. With a northwesterly exit to this disturbance, there is a chance the Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide areas may squeak out a few more inches than predicted. If anywhere can see higher snow totals, these areas could.

Looking into the week ahead, we will see increased cloudiness and flurries every other day, with a series of more promising storms lining up for the first full week of March.

Date: 02/28/2016

Chalk up another bluebird day, as the overcast skies from yesterday’s hiccup in the zonal flow moves eastward and sunny skies return. Expect light westerly winds today and tonight, before the only “storm” in the foreseeable future arrives Monday afternoon, bringing with it an increase in westerly winds and chance for light snow. Beyond Monday, a few ripples in the flow will bring clouds and flurries for the workweek ahead, but a pattern change looks a ways out.

Date: 02/27/2016

The high pressure ridge that has been steering our warm, dry weather flattens today, kicking off a more progressive pattern that will bring a series of shortwave disturbances through next week. The first wave is weak and steers too far north for any snowfall, but we will see winds increase and cloud cover build this afternoon into tonight on the southern edge of this fast moving system. Any lingering clouds should quickly clear out on Sunday morning in its dry and cool wake. Monday’s wave pushes better moisture further south, but lacks the oomph from frontal and dynamic lift. We could see 3-6″ of orographic snowfall in the typical favored locations, and light accumulations elsewhere by Tuesday.

Date: 2/26/16

High pressure strengthens over Colorado today, bringing our warmest day yet this week. Mountain temperatures will climb from the low 20’s this morning into the mid-30’s under sunny skies. A more progressive pattern develops this weekend into next week. The first shortwave system passes to our north late Saturday, bringing nothing more than increased winds and cloud cover. A stronger wave approaches on Monday, bringing a better chance for snowfall to the Elk Mountains.