Date: 12/01/2016

Today we will see cold air advection from a weakening disturbance bring continued cloudiness and light orographic snowfall to the spine of the Elk Mountains. Winds should remain light, and temperatures frigid. Looking ahead, a few more embedded ripples of moisture will keep stubborn clouds and snow showers over the highest terrain until Saturday, when the atmosphere temporarily dries out before a much more promising, possibly significant storm arrives early next week.

Date: 11/30/2016

We’ll see mostly clear to partly cloudy skies today under chilly and dry northwest flow. A shortwave trough drops out of the northwest tonight, increasing cloud cover tomorrow and spreading light snow showers to the Elk Mountains by tomorrow night. Look for a few inches out of this system. The storm track dives to our south this weekend keeping the weather unsettled but little in the way of snow accumulations.

Date: 11/29/2016

Colorado is now in the backside of the trough that brought significant snowfall since Sunday morning. Radar is picking up a few waning showers upstream of us, and northwest to north orographics could wring out a final inch or two, but you snow dancers can take a breather for the moment. The next trough is fast on its heels, digging into the Great Basin this Friday. Between now and then, we’ll be sitting in a cold, gradually drying air mass.

Date: 11/28/2016

There will be a break in the weather this morning as last night’s larger scale lift breaks down. We’ll still be sitting under northwest flow so clouds and some very light snow showers may continue in the mountains west of Crested Butte. The next wave of energy looks to arrive around mid-day. Snow showers should develop over the entire forecast area, but this wave will again favor the western and northern boundaries of our forecast area, thanks to northwest flow and orographics. Today’s total snow accumulations across the forecast area don’t look to impressive, especially compared to yesterday. Though I’ll put some higher numbers in the forecasted snow totals as orographics could really bump those snow numbers up in the favored Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide zones.
Mostly cloudy skys will persist on Tuesday with only a few lingering snow showers. The Crested Butte Area and further east will likely be mostly dry, while orographic will keep some snow showers going in those orographically favored area. Wednesday through Friday will see a continued drying weather pattern.

Date: 11/27/2016

Snow starting falling as forecasted early this morning as a trough of low pressure pulls moisture into the area on southwest flow. The San Juan Mountains have some nice new snow numbers this morning while we’ll be seeing our share a new snow as snowfall rates look to pick up around 9:30am this morning. The most recent weather models show the low pressure trough sagging a bit further south and east than previous forecast discussions, taking some of the best moisture and weather dynamics with it. That takes some of the excitement out of my sails and adds in a little bit of uncertainty in estimated total snowfall numbers as models are still forecasting some nice total snow numbers in our area for Sunday and Monday. So we’ll have to wait in see how it all shakes out. After this morning pulse of snowfall we’ll likely see a decrease in snowfall rates this afternoon, before another pulse arrives after dark this evening and winds becoming more westerly to northwesterly. A third pulse of snowfall is forecasted to arrive mid-day Monday favoring Central and Northern Colorado as winds continue from the west to northwest. Wednesday through Friday will bring dryer air as we sit in cool northwest flow between low pressures to our East and West. The next system moving across the US towards the end of the week looks to mostly miss Colorado and dive even further south.

Date: 11/26/2016

One more pleasant day in the mountains before our pattern shifts towards active and wintery weather. Sunny skies and mild temps will give way to thickening clouds this evening, signaling the onshore arrival of a deep trough tapping into Pacific moisture and supported by the jet stream. The trough elongates over the Western U.S. and slowly migrates eastward into next week. This brings a series of strong snowfall pulses through Wednesday to the Elk Mountains that may require a yardstick to measure when all is said and done. The action kicks off Sunday morning as strong southwest flow spreads snowfall across the region accompanied by strong winds. Snowfall gets an orographic boost through the day as flow shifts towards the west. An embedded shortwave brings increased snowfall again on Monday.

Date: 11/24/2016

Those Turkeys are getting smart as they head for their best hiding places. Calling on Ullr to cover their tracks with a fresh blanket of new snow. A fast moving weather system has brought overnight snow and gusty winds. We’ll see a drying trend and decreasing winds throughout the day, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area. On Saturday we’ll be seeing increasing clouds ahead of the next weather system approaching from the southwest. This southwest flow will bring a return to winter weather and have us measuring new snow again by Sunday morning. Unsettled weather continues into the start of next week.

Date: 11/22/2016

A deepening trough crossed Colorado Monday night and is now closing off over the Kansas border early Tuesday morning. This relatively warm and moist system brought the Elk Mountains 3-8″ overnight. Moisture wrapping from the northwest on the tail of this system will fuel a few more inches of snow this morning in the favored Paradised and Kebler areas, under moderate alpine winds. Snowfall winds down through the day as a weak and transient ridge approaches from the West. Wednesday will be a beautiful day in the mountains, with light winds, only a few high clouds, and temperatures warming into the 30’s. A shortwave passing to our north will bring a fresh shot of snow on Thanksgiving Day, but not much deeper than your pile of mashed potatoes.

Date: 04/17/2016

The closed low will continue to stall over Colorado and Southern Wyoming over the next few days before weak and short-lived high pressure arrives on Wednesday. The pattern of overcast skies, light winds, and light snowfall can be expected until then. As the low wobbles around today and tomorrow, flow looks to remain unfavorable for our mountains out of the south and southwest. As it exits on Tuesday, we should see a shift to west and northwest flow, which will bring our best chance for better accumulations.

Date: 04/16/2016

The strong spring storm is now centered over northern New Mexico, and will shift northeast through the day, spinning abundant moisture under southeast to easterly flow. Although this direction isn’t favorable for most of our zone, ejected pieces of storm energy should continue to bring snowfall through the day. The mountains to our east, such as Star Pass, should be favored under this unusual flow pattern, and could see snow amounts in excess of 8″ today. The low retrogrades, stalls over Colorado, and weakens into Sunday and Monday, bringing continued unsettled weather but unfavorable dynamics to the Crested Butte area.