Date: 01/09/2017

A very moist and warm airmass is pushing into Colorado on Southwest flow. Temperatures are right around the freezing level at 11,000ft Monday morning and will remain near or just above freezing today. There is lot of precipitation in the forecast for Monday, starting to pick up around 7am. Above 11,000ft we’ll see very large snow totals, while below 11,000ft we’ll see a mix rain and snow. These warm temperatures make the snow forecast very difficult. Colder air starts to arrive from the north tonight but temperatures will still rebound to just below freezing at 11,000ft tomorrow. Tomorrow will also bring a loll in precipitation as we await the next round kicking off around Tuesday night. We’ll see another round of heavier precipitation on the Wednesday/Wednesday night timeframe as well. Later in the week there is some disagreement in weather models and we’ll wait to look into that one.

Date: 01/08/2017

Now the weather forecast is really getting fun and hard to believe. We just got out of a large winter storm a few days ago and this week we’re going right back into another one. We’ll have a few inches of new snow today and rising temperatures as warm moist air starts infiltrating on southwest flow. When I say warm temperatures I’m talking near freezing as we head into Monday. A large plume of moisture is streaming into the US on westerly flow, similar to last weeks storm. So think very warm moist snow this afternoon and especially tomorrow. Monday night into Tuesday looks like the best snow producer for our area as winds become more westerly and temperatures cool. The mid-week also looks to be unsettled with continued snow showers, though not as heavy as this Monday night-Tuesday window.

Date: 01/07/2017

The mercury has fallen off the thermometer this morning. Valley temps range from -25 to -35F, while mountain stations are hovering a little above zero. Thankfully, for us warm-blooded, snow-loving creatures, relief is on the way. The Pineapple Express takes aim at Colorado this next week. A warm front is moving onto the California coastline this morning. We will see increasing clouds and temperatures trending upward this afternoon and overnight as a weak and warm shortwave trough crosses the Great Basin. Valley inversions may be slow to scour out tonight, and we can look forward to light snowfall tomorrow. The favorable dynamics arrive on Monday, and we may be looking at 2 feet of snow by Monday night, with a progressive pattern continuing all week. Hope you didn’t burn all your sick days for the year already…

Date: 01/06/2017

As the last major winter storm departs, we will all attempt to dig ourselves out and soak up some of that sunshine, though temperatures will struggle to climb out of the basement, and drop to double digit below zero temperatures tonight. This break in the snowfall will be short-lived, as another Pacific storm churns toward the California coastline, with its arrival to Colorado looking to be Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. Finer details will emerge in coming days with what to expect for this next storm, but first glance looks warm and windy with significant snowfall.

Snow will continue today as a very slow moving cold front with associated heavy snow and wind sinks southward into the central Colorado Rockies and stalls over the Elk Mountains. As that cold front moves through, snowfall rates will spike, and visibilities may drop significantly. Behind the front, colder, drier air moves in, shutting off the tropical moisture tap, and leaving gradually clearing skies and frigid air for tomorrow.

Dry weather will be short-lived with another minor disturbance moves into our area Saturday, then more active weather fed by more fish tacos (Baja style) arrives Sunday afternoon as a closed low develops off the Mexican coastline, and ejects into the desert southwest.  This system will combine with westerly flow from the Gulf of Alaska for another doozy.

Date: 01/04/2017

Buckle your seat belts. Over the next 30 hours, the Elk Mountains dive straight into the belly of the atmospheric beast. Snowfall started after midnight, and this morning a few stations have already seen 3″/hour rates. A river of Pacific moisture is pouring into Colorado with good dynamic jet support. These two ingredients alone are forecasted to bring 1″/hour rates all day. A few embedded waves will bring stronger pulses at times. We’ll see moderate westerly alpine winds this morning, intensifying through the afternoon ahead of the cold front, reaching strong to extreme speeds by sunset. The cold front begins to sag south overnight, and snowfall rates spike after midnight, reaching 3″/hour just before sunrise. Tomorrow, winds begin to ease and snowfall starts to taper as the system moves east.

Date: 01/03/2017

Radar at 4:30 this morning is showing a nice pulse of snow over Western Colorado, with a relatively dry swath of air upstream across Utah and Nevada under zonal flow. Heavy precipitation has moved onshore over California. Snowfall rates will wind down through the day as this current pulse ejects to our east and the jet stream splits around Colorado. The jet the realigns our direction tonight, packing abundant moisture on a direct flight from the Pacific, coupled with a cold front swinging north to south across the state on Wednesday. Still some model waffling as to how these dynamics line up, but tomorrow looks very impressive. Snowfall totals between now and Wednesday night look to exceed 20″.

Date: 01/02/2017

Today’s weather will be very similar to yesterday with light snow showers and blustery southwest winds. The air circulating around the globe is being squeezed between a deep low-pressure system over the northwestern US and a shallow trough over Texas. This tight pressure gradient is bringing elevated winds and pulling in enough moisture to continue light snow showers. The WRF model gets excited with enhanced orographic snow for our western forecast area tonight, as Crested Butte looks to continue seeing similar snow showers as yesterday and tonight. Snow showers will taper briefly on Tuesday around mid-day before the main event gets going early Wednesday morning. Increased moisture is pulled into the area and lasts through the day as we see snow intensities ramp up and produce the best 12hr snow totals for the week. Colorado will remain under this unsettled westerly flow through the week with a brief break in the weather looking to happen around Friday.

Date: 01/01/2017

This morning we have one low-pressure eating fish tacos down on the Baja/California border while another low pressure is eating fish sandwiches up in the northwest. These two systems are going to squeeze the pressure gradient between them with strong winds aloft and a turbulent atmosphere. Atmospheric lift and some moisture will bring us light snow showers today through tonight. Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday winds look be very strong with lots of turbulences in the atmosphere as the pressure gradients tighten and a trough forms over Colorado. So we’ll have that unsettled, turbulent atmosphere, and we just need to add moisture to see those snowfall numbers start adding up. The best chance of increased moisture arriving looks to be around Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Date: 12/31/2016

Warm moisture is spinning out of the southwest today ahead of two closed lows lined up over Nevada and California. We should see partly to mostly cloudy skies today, but all of the precipitation will get hung up on the San Juan Mountains to our south. A shortwave trough out of the northwest merges with these lows and kicks off 2017 with light snowfall. The polar jet then sags over Colorado on Sunday night, increasing snowfall rates and dropping the mercury into midweek. Look for accumulations to approach a foot of new snow by Tuesday night.