December 4, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/04/2014

Another tropical disturbance originating near Baja will be surging to our south. The San Juans will catch the brunt of this one, and our Elk Mountains will be lucky to pick up a few inches of wet snow. A ridge builds over the Great Basin on Friday, shifting the flow to the northwest under a drying atmosphere. The next Pacific trough arrives this weekend. Stay tuned.

December 3, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/03/2014

A conveyor belt of tropical moisture is streaming over Colorado under southwest flow. Despite high moisture amounts, some other ingredients needed for big snowfall amounts are lacking. The first pulse of moisture is passing overhead early this morning uneventfully. The next push is crossing Southern Utah and Arizona early this morning and looks to be a better snowfall producer. We should see light snowfall by midday as it moves into the Elk Mountains, with a few inches of accumulation, potentially more at the highest elevations. The next wave looks to arrive Thursday evening, bringing another round of snowfall before clearing on Friday.

December 2, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/02/2014

A warm, moist Pacific system is moving onshore this morning. We’ll see clouds thickening and lowering through the day ahead of it. Although the system is packing unusually high amounts of moisture, mountain snow accumulations are forecasted to be relatively low because atmospheric lift is hurting. Moisture will continue advecting over the Elk Mountains through the week, bring continued pulses of snow.

December 1, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/01/2014

Weather Summary: A weak disturbance over our area will finish up snowfall this morning as it moves off to our east. Skys will be clearing throughout the day as we move back into more mostly clear and warm weather for Tuesday. Wednesday, a warm and moist system will move into our area on Southwest flow. More aspects of this system need to line up before we can accurately estimate snowfall but around 3-5” by Thursday for our mountains would be a start.

Tracking the Persistent Slab Problem in Paradise Divide

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Name: Zach Guy
Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 11/30/2014
Aspect: North, North East
Elevation: 9,500 ft – 12,400 ft

Avalanches: No recent slides. The crown investigated was a NE aspect at 12,300 ft on Mt. Richmond. HS-N-R2-D1.5-O that likely failed about 5-6 days ago. The slab was 50-100 cm deep, 1F hardness. It failed on a thin layer of ~1mm rounding facets (Nov 12 interface) over a 2 cm meltfreeze crust (late October layer), which caps a thicker layer of 2-2.5 mm faceted crystals (October layers). Stability test above the crown was ECTN 25 Q3 on the Nov 12 facet layer

Weather: High, thin overcast, warm temps, and moderate NW winds

Snowpack: Below treeline: Snowpack is entirely faceted; no concerning structures. Still supportive on skis but trending towards trap-door. Surface is fist-hard near surface facets.

Near and Above treeline: Snowpack is quite variable. Most areas (~70% of terrain) hold a shallow snowpack (<80 cm) due to wind erosion. The snowpack there is faceting from the top down, with easy pole plants to the ground and lacking a concerning structure.  Specific windloaded features, such as gullies and below convexities, are still harboring slabs up to 130cm thick and 1F in hardness. Several targeted stability tests in these suspect areas showed poor propagation potential on the basal weak layers (ECTN, ECTX on October and early November facets, 4F to 4F+, .5 mm up to2.5 mm in size). One of these pits was dug at the crown of a persistent slab avalanche that failed an estimated 5-6 days ago. The Nov 22 interface was consistently indistinct and produced no results in stability tests. We jumped around on numerous small test slopes and traveled on steep terrain with no signs of instability. The surface is mostly soft, wind-rippled near surface facets with pockets of firm windboard.

I quickly poked onto a steep South aspect at 12,300 feet. The surface is a supportive melt-freeze crust roughly 2″ thick.

20141130 Richmond Crown

Crown profile from older slide on Mt. Richmond. NE Aspect ATL

11/30/2014

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 11/30/2014
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 12,000

Avalanches: No recents signs of instabilty .

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the SW gusts from 10-15 mph

Snowpack: Windloading on NE slopes above treeline .

November 30, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 11/30/2014

Forecast Discussion: Another mild day in store as a cold front stalls to our north. A weak disturbance will pass through the mountains this evening bringing light showers. On Monday morning, A high pressure ridge will rebuild over the Great Basin, driving warmer and drier air into the area. The next disturbance looks to arrive on Wednesday.

Today

High Temperature: 28° – 33°
Wind Speed: 10 – 20, Gusting to 30
Wind Direction: SW
Sky Cover: Increasing clouds
Snow: 0″

Tonight

Low Temperature: 17° – 22°
Wind Speed: 10 – 20, Gusting to 30
Wind Direction: SW
Sky Cover: Mostly Cloudy
Snow: 0″ – 2″

Tomorrow

High Temperature: 25° – 30°
Wind Speed: 10 – 20
Wind Direction: SW, W
Sky Cover: Partly Cloudy
Snow: 0″ – 1″

Irwin Obs 11/29

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Name: Irwin Guides
Title: Irwin Obs
Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 11/29/2014
Aspect: East, West
Elevation: Near and above treeline

Snowpack: Overall tracking two interfaces: Nov 12th & Nov 22nd . The November 22nd is the more suspect and made up of a thin sun crust that seems to be becoming less distinct depending on aspect and elevation. The November 12th is on the Ground in many areas but on a facet layer anywhere the Nov 3rd storm did not melt away.

East: Skied and dug test profile on Binge (ESE 11,800’). No signs of instability, HS 60-80cm. Very thin crust on surface. Nov. 22nd interface very indistinct. Uniform snowpack. Ski pen 15cm.

West: Thortons (WSW 11,300’) No signs of instability. HS: 30-80cm and variable surface from crusts on SW to DF and soft on West. Crust was almost supportive in places. November 22nd crust was not continuous though still produced some results. Ski pen 10-20 cm.

Snowpack Ob 11/29

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Name: Venn
Title: Snowpack Ob 11/29
Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 11/29/2014
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 11,000

Weather: clear sky giving way to clouds after 3pm. moderate winds on valley floor and on ridge around treeline. however skin track was filled in from blowing snow possibly from day before. winds looked to be stronger up higher as we saw snow blowing over some of the peaks above 12,000 ft.

Snowpack: snow on sunny aspects became very wet and dense early on around 11pm. shady aspects on NE slopes have stiffen. ski penetration approximately 12 inches. noticed some wind slaps forming off of ridge on NE aspects. no signs of instabilities.

11/29 Snowpack Observation

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Name: Evan Ross
Title: 11/29/14
Location: Paradise Divide Area
Date of Observation: 11/29/2014
Aspect: North East, South East, South
Elevation: 9,800-11,300

Weather: Mostly clear with a period of overcast sky in the afternoon. Gusty down valley winds that would come and go. Above freezing temps near 40f through the day.

Snowpack: Toured in the near treeline elevation ban on a few south, southeast and northeast slopes. No obvious signs to instability on any slope. Checked in with the 11/22 interface on all slopes and could only get a result on SE. CTM RP on what looked like small NSF and an ECTX. The only slope that wasn’t moist, of the selection, was NE.