Mountain Weather 3/23/2017

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/23/2017

We will kick that high pressure and above normal temperatures to the curb today, as a strong Pacific storm churns its way across the Great Basin this morning, leaving us with very different weather by sunset. A strong cold front currently located around Vernal, Utah (4am) will march into Colorado by midday, and we should see gusty winds, an intense period of precipitation, and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. Snow levels will initially ride high (9-10,000ft) this morning, falling during the afternoon to valley bottom by midnight. The changeover to snow will determine the amount of snow accumulation our mountains will see. Strong southerly winds will usher in the cold front today, with strong northwesterly winds behind the front, slowly decreasing by Friday midday.

SPECIAL GRAND TRAVERSE WEATHER: This potent storm system will be short-lived and move quickly out of the race corridor by Friday midday. 8-12” of new snow looks possible, but will hinge on how quickly any rain changes over to snow and how much northerly flow robs or enhances the race course of moisture. Northwest winds look to peak Friday morning around 6am, with nearly calm conditions and temperatures in the teens at Star Pass race night. The CBAC will issue an updated race forecast tomorrow morning.

Wet loose action on BTL northerlies

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 03/22/2017
Name: Zach Guy
Subject: Wet loose action on BTL northerlies
Aspect: North, North East
Elevation: Below treeline

Avalanches: Fresh D1 to D2 wet loose on northerly aspects near town. All of these likely ran last 24 hours, appeared to entrain only the top 5-10″ of wet snow.
-D1 in Half Bowl on Axtell
-D1.5 in Unemployment Chute
-D1.5 and D2 Happy Chutes
-D1.5 in Climax Chutes

Also a 3 or 4 fresh looking D2 glide avalanches on Whetstone, NE aspect BTL. Uncertain on the timing of these, looked to be sometime in the past few days; best guess is they ran today.
Weather:
Snowpack:

D1.5 Happy CHutes
D2 Happy CHutes
D1 Half Bowl

Poor refreeze at Irwin

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 03/22/2017
Name: Zach Guy
Subject: Poor refreeze at Irwin
Aspect: South East, South, South West
Elevation: 10,000-12,000 ft

Avalanches: Looks like a fresh wet D2 off of NE face of Mt. Owen from the last day or so.
Weather: Overcast skies thickened through the day; some green housing in the morning. High of 45 at 10k, 34 at 12k. Moderate SW ridge top winds
Snowpack: A trace of new snow and rain overnight on top of a thin refreeze. Surfaces remained frozen at 12,000 feet, but the snowpack was or became punchy at lower elevations. Snowmobile track plunging deep when you would get off of old tracks. Didn’t travel on any steep terrain to observe wet instabilities

Mountain Weather

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/22/2017

Warm, moist southwest flow will bring a mix of sun and clouds today ahead of a Pacific trough digging towards the California/Baja coast. Snow showers will kick off mid-day on Thursday as good upper-level support combine with deep Pacific moisture. The trough closes off Thursday night as it approaches southern Colorado, complicating the forecast. A disorganized cold front looks to accompany this closing trough on Thursday evening, fueling additional snowfall and shifting flow to the northwest. The movement of the low becomes harder to pin down on Friday, and models continue to waffle over the finer details of the storm. Our latest high-resolution WRF point forecasts show about 5-6″ of snow by Friday for Taylor and Star Pass, with strong northerly winds easing through the day on Friday.

Red Lady Glades

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 03/21/2017
Name: Ross
Subject: Red Lady Glades
Aspect: South West
Elevation: 8,900-12400

Avalanches:
Weather: Clear sky in the morning becoming overcast as the day progressed. No wind. Temps at 7:30 26f valley bottom. Rapidly warming with strong solar am. Overcast by 12:30 with tens into the mid 40f.
Snowpack: Inversion over night and a slight freeze made for supportable conditions for only a brief moment today. No signs of instability seen. Rapid warming meant we had to be finished by 12:00 due to moist snow pack towards the valley floor. Boot pen at 12:00 was 15-20cm.

Axtell

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 03/21/2017
Name: Tim Brown
Subject: Axtell
Aspect: North, North East, West
Elevation: 9,600 – 11,700

Avalanches:
Weather: Skies were clear at 8am, but clouds increased to produce mostly cloudy skies by noon. Light SW winds at 11,700′ @ 11am.
Snowpack: 10-15cm refreeze on mid-elevation west-facing forested slopes was still supportable (no ski penetration) at 11am. HS 2m.

Previously wind-loaded snow on steep north and northeast aspects above treeline was still dry and “chalky.” Snowpack tests on the mostly pencil-hard upper snowpack produced no results (ECTX on 40* slope, NE aspect @ 11,700′). Snow on northerly aspects near and below treeline was still supportable (10cm ski pen) at noon, but the crust was only ~5cm thick with moist snow below it for at least 60cm. HS 2m

Slate/Wash Gulch Divide

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Crested Butte Area
Date of Observation: 03/21/2017
Name: Ian Havlick
Subject: Slate/Wash Gulch Divide
Aspect: South East, South, South West
Elevation: BTL

Avalanches: Observed active natural cornice fall off E-Facing ridge line above Long Lake. Numerous other large cornice failures along same E-Facing ridgeline, some triggering size 2 LW over last few days.
Weather: Increasing clouds throughout morning and rapid warming between 8-10am. Calm to very light west breeze at ridgetop. 25º at TH at 8:30 warmed to 43º by 11:30
Snowpack: Very supportable 4-6″ rockhard crust aspects travelled this morning, including dense aspen forest. Strong solar and warming ambient temperatures quickly softened E-SE surfaces by 930 and 1030 all BTL aspects’ crusts were breaking down. Punchy by 12 noon. Snowpack in 8800-10400′ entirely isothermal and melting fast. Avg HS 40-100cm

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Mountain Weather

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 03/21/2017

Another unseasonably warm and beautiful day in the Elk Mountains: today looks like the culmination of our 2-week corn harvest. Clouds begin streaming in this afternoon ahead of a moisture-laden Pacific trough. The trough moves onshore near Baja and is forecasted to close off over the 4-corners region towards the end of the week. Grand Traversers keep your fingers crossed: This pattern doesn’t typically produce big snow numbers or post storm winds in the Elk Mountains. My early prediction for storm totals on Thursday through Friday are in the 4-8″ range, although our first look at some high resolution models are calling for 12″ at Star Pass.

Increasing clouds slowing today’s warmup

CB Avalanche Center2016-17 Observations

Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 03/20/2017
Name: Evan Ross, Zach Guy
Subject: Increasing clouds slowing today’s warmup
Aspect: North East, East, North West
Elevation: 11,500-13,050

Avalanches: One fresh D2 wet loose avalanche in the past 48 hours, perhaps a few new smaller ones as well.  The D2 started at about 12,000ft on the south side of Mt Owen, and gouged down to the ground in a thin, rocky area. Probably failed around 3/18.
Weather: Increasing clouds through out the day, becoming mostly cloudy. Moderate westerly winds at ridgeline.
Snowpack: Snow surfaces stayed relatively cooler today thanks to increased clouds and wind. More variable snow surfaces in the alpine. All forms of wind effect, buffed, scraped or sculpted into ugly things. Sun crusts yep, and even some elusive decomposed soft snow surfaces.

On an East aspect around 12,600ft the wetting front had only made it down about 15-20cm’s with dry snow below. In the afternoon, the surface crusts broke down on steeper or rockier easterly slopes despite the cloudy skies.

Northwesterly aspects stayed cold with smooth wind polished or textured faceted snow surfaces.