Date: 02/23/2015

Yesterday’s snowfall was a bit later and lighter then forecasted but we still did well with a general foot of snow so far. A low pressure system south of Colorado is producing excellent snowfall in the San Juan mountains. That same moisture is carrying over to our mountains too and we’ll see continued snowfall today. The big forecasted player in enhanced snowfall for our mountains was a convergent zone the set up to our west and hasn’t moved over our areas to produce the significant snowfall that was in the forecast yesterday. On Tuesday the low pressure to our south will be moving out of the area and we’ll see a dryer transition day. By Wednesday a shortwave will be dropping into Northern Colorado that should keep us seeing snowfall later this week.

Date: 02/22/2015

The next phase of a prolonged winter storm will get underway today. We are currently under a moist and unstable southwest flow. Weather models are forecasting several weather conditions that will add lift to this moist air and create a ban of heavy snow passing over our area around midday. Snowfall numbers are currently looking impressive for the next 24 hours. A closed low will be tracking just below Colorado south boarder through the start of the week. This low will continue spinning moisture into our area as we head into next week.

Date: 02/21/2015

The atmosphere has had a lot of work on its hands to carve a trough and moisten the atmosphere after the long stretch of dry weather we have had. Yesterday was the preamble, the first wave of cooler, moister air to prime the pump for snow production tonight and tomorrow. Today expect showery precipitation and gusty west winds above treeline once again, but as the day progresses, more steady snow should fall, aided by daytime heating and upstream moisture finally arriving. Tomorrow is our big day. NOAA has hoisted a Winter Storm Warning for the upper Gunnison Basin, and we have the potential for 1-2 feet of snow by Monday. Looking ahead, more snow hangs in the forecast.

Date: 02/20/2015

Today will be a fun day to be in the mountains and watch a storm roll in, and looks to remain unsettled for the next several days. Although potential snow accumulations look to be quite variable, a good 8-12+” should fall across our forecast area, with higher amounts possible by Monday morning. A series of disturbances will dig down from the Pacific Northwest, with the first impacting our area by this afternoon, as a cold front drops from the North. Look for increasing westerly winds throughout the day, and snow accumulation to remain light by sunset.

Date: 02/19/2015

Another beautiful, sunny day with some increasing high clouds is in store for today, but let’s jump ahead to the real excitement – this weekend. A shortwave from the Pacific Northwest dives across the Northern Rockies on Friday. Clouds thicken overnight, and snowfall kicks off sometime late Friday afternoon as the associated cold front marches north to south across the state. A reinforcing wave arrives on Saturday, contributing to a prolonged period of snowfall through Sunday. Model runs keep pushing the snowfall further east of us, and its looking like a ruler will suffice for the Elk Mountains, whereas a yardstick might be more useful for a few lucky spots on or east of the Continental Divide. A closed low splits west off of the trough on Sunday, with potential for continued snowfall through Monday.

Date: 02/18/2015

The high pressure ridge to our west will steer us through dry and mild weather over the next two days. The ridge begins to broaden and flatten through the week, allowing the storm track to dive over Colorado this weekend.  Models are still spread out on how the storm evolves, but we should see some amount of snowfall starting Friday night through Sunday. Stay tuned!

Date: 02/17/2015

It’s going to feel like real winter outside.  A jet streak will nose over Colorado today, bringing strong winds out of the northwest, with alpine wind chills dipping into negative digits. The notorious high pressure ridge begins to rebuild and then flattens over the west coast, shifting the storm track east again, and bringing warmer weather and clearing skies through Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for more snowfall returns by this weekend as another storm tracks over the state from the Northwest.

Date: 02/16/2015

Yesterdays forecasts where for the storm track to pass by to our east. Weather discussions this morning are hinting at that storm track moving slightly more west which will help us see some snow today. Accumulations will still be light as most moisture is east of our mountains. We may see some additional orographic snow on the western and northern boundaries of our forecast area, but that may be wishful thinking. The blocking ridge responsibly for the dry weather we’ve seen in January and February begins rebuilding on Tuesday. Leading us into a warming and drying trend through the week. Longer range, it looks like we’ll see another chance for snow next weekend but we’ll have to wait for more details on that.

Date:

The weather is changing as we’ll be on the edge of two shortwave disturbances. Forecasts have been jumping around on their estimated track of these shortwaves and how they track will determine weather or not we see much snow. Currently the first disturbance will mostly affect Northern Colorado on Sunday night. The 2nd disturbance arriving Monday looks better as it pushes farther south into Colorado, but favors the mountains to our east and mostly affecting the Continental Divide. Both of these shortwaves are arriving on Norwest flow, so we may luck out with some better orographic snow in the mountains west of Crested Butte. We’ll see increasingly clouds today and decreased high temperatures during this period.

Date:

Okay! Now we’re talking… There is hope. We will see another very warm day with clear skies and light winds. Temperatures near 11,000ft look to approach 45ºF today, ahead of a colder disturbance clipping our area Sunday and Monday. The models were once showing the ridge centered farther East, shunting any moisture from reaching us, now centers it farther west, allowing cold, moist air to create some snow potential Sunday evening and Monday. Still quite a lot of uncertainty, and time will tell.