Date: 12/17/2015

This morning we are on the back edge of a shortwave trough that is responsible for our most recent overnight snow accumulations. By about 11am this morning our overnight totals should be in the 3-5” range for the more favored mountains west of Crested Butte. West to northwest winds looks to ramp up a little this morning as well. Snow showers look to decrease this afternoon as available moisture dissipates through the day. Friday through Saturday a shallow ridge builds bringing dryer conditions and warming high temperatures. We’ll see a return to stormy weather on Sunday.

Date: 12/16/2015

The last low pressure has moved off to the east while cold air remains in place today under northwest flow. We may see a few orographic showers today, but there isn’t much moisture to see anything exiting. Mostly we’ll be dealing with cloudy skys. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a wave in this northwest flow combined with some other lifting mechanisms and more available moisture will bring good snowfall to northern Colorado. Our area is a bit south of the better looking snowfall, but we should still see a few more inches of snow arrive with increased northwest winds. A small ridge starts building Thursday night bringing dryer weather and slowly rebounding temperatures over the following days.

Date: 12/15/2015

The closed low that is responsible for our current weather has moved over Colorado and is about to start its journey up to the Great Lakes. Our best shots for enhanced snowfall have mostly passed, with Irwin doing ok, but we just missed out on a better band of snow to our north, where Snowmass is waking up to about 12” this morning. Available moisture is now starting a drying trend but Colorado is transiting to northwest flow behind this low. This is a more favorable orographic flow for us. So today we should see continued light snowfall with accumulating snow mostly west and north of Crested Butte. Then snow showers will become more scattered tonight and into Wednesday with little accumulating snow during that period.

Date: 12/14/2015

The Pacific trough closes off over Utah today, issuing deep moisture into our region under southwest flow. Snowfall looks to kick off late this afternoon with a couple of inches possible before sunset, and gets a boost as a weak cold front arrives tonight. Flow swings around to the northwest as the low moves overhead into Tuesday. The combination of deep moisture and northwest flow does well for Kebler Pass and Paradise Divide, and we could see up to a foot of new snow by Tuesday evening in these areas, with half of that closer to town.

Date: 12/13/2015

We’ll see low level clouds burn off through the day under a fast moving transitory ridge. The next system has already moved onshore over California. A deepening trough bring snowfall back to our mountains starting midday on Monday. Flow will initially be out of the southwest, with the best jet support staying to our south. We should see a few inches during the day on Monday. Cold front passage and more favorable flow arrive Monday evening into Tuesday as the trough closes off and passes overhead. 5″ to 10″ looks like a safe bet by the time this system exits on Tuesday night.

Date: 12/12/2015

Yesterday’s forecasted storm took some time out of its schedule to slow down and remind weather forecasters who’s boss. No matter, snow is still on its way with snowfall rates picking up at about 3am this morning. Just much later then forecasted yesterday. The sun will rise this morning with a couple inches of new snow on the ground while the heavier precipitation rates will be during the first half of Saturday, mostly before 11am. Some models are still excited for today’s total snowfall with .8” SWE by 5pm. However the Low Pressure trough is currently digging further south than anticipated which is leading to cutting those total snowfall numbers slightly. A weak ridge will be moving into our area this evening leading to a drying trend for Sunday. Winds will be light through today before picking up from the north tonight.

Date: 12/11/2015

Just when we didn’t think it would ever snow again, the weather forecasts have some interesting changes in store through the start of next week. Currently there is a low pressure trough approaching from the west and a cold front stalling over northern Colorado. A number of weather factors are combining to produce enhanced snowfall numbers north of I-70 and I don’t know if it’s the weather forecasters that are more exited or those locals.

For our area we’ll have to mostly really on orographic snowfall from southwest flow for today’s accumulations. So we should pick up a few inches mainly west of Crested Butte today with continued strong winds from the Southwest. Late this afternoon and tonight we’ll get our share of enhanced snowfall before things start to quiet down as Saturday progresses. Winds will finally start decreasing also on Saturday as the low pressure trough moves over Colorado. A weak high pressure ridge will build as the trough heads east before the next system moves in early next week.

Date: 12/10/2015

High level clouds and winds will increase under westerly flow ahead of an incoming Pacific system bringing deep moisture. Favorable jet dynamics and a cold front are forecasted to stall over northwest Colorado, leaving us out of the bulls-eye for Friday’s snowfall. The influences of the jet won’t miss us though, with strong to extreme alpine winds at the front end of this system. The cold front then pivots through the Elk Mountains on Friday night, boosting snowfall and pushing our snowfall totals closer to a foot on Saturday in favored locations. A transitory ridge follows behind on Sunday, bringing a lull in weather before another system arrives Monday, bringing continued snowfall.

Date: 12/09/2015

Breezy but dry conditions will persist for the next two days as the storm track and jet stream remains to our north. Weak disturbences embedded in northwest flow will bring increased cloud cover tonight and tomorrow but sno w is unlikely. A Pacifc trough impacts our region on Thursday night into Friday. A slow moving cold front, along with jet and orographic support will combine to produce a decent shot of snow and wind to carry us into the weekend. Accumulations are roughly looking like a foot in favored locations, with half of that or less closer to town.

Date: 12/08/2015

A weak embedded wave under northwest flow will bring an increase in cloud cover and maybe a few snow flurries in our peaks today. We’ll see dry conditions follow suit until another weak disturbance brushes to our north Wednesday night. The heavy hitters arrive on Friday into the weekend, but models are showing some disagreement on how to handle this incoming Pacific trough. Details to come later this week.