Date: 02/05/2016

Last nights small disturbance that brought an inch or two of snow and cloudy sky’s is on its way out this morning. Ridge top winds are currently light to moderate, but we should see some stronger gusts as this disturbance is moving out, before the winds quiet back down later today. Cloud cover will also be decreasing throughout the day. Saturday night, northern Colorado gets clipped by another weak disturbance which will probably just bring some increased winds and clouds for our area and maybe a lucky inch of snow. By Monday a large high pressure ridge will be setting up over the western US, bringing a return to normal temperatures and dry weather heading into the week.

Date: 02/04/2016

An approaching weak system will bring increasing clouds, moderate alpine winds, and some light snowfall this evening into tomorrow. A high pressure ridge develops over the West Coast. Colorado will initially be under northwest flow on the downslope side of this ridge, bringing unsettled weather but generally light to no snow accumulations into next week. The ridge eventual broadens and moves east, bringing clear weather and a warming trend with it.

Date: 02/03/2016

Its a chilly one out there, with most mountain and valley temperatures below zero this morning and forecasted to climb into the upper single digits today. We are between systems right now, with cold northwest flow shifting to west flow tomorrow. A weak shortwave today will spur continued snowfall, with the favored orographic locations squeezing out a few more inches of snow and less near town. A weak trough makes its way across Colorado on Thursday night. Look for winds to increase ahead of this system, and half a foot or less to fall by Friday night.

Date: 02/02/2016

Expert meteorologist Punxsutawney Phil is predicting an early spring, but wintery weather looks to continue for the Elk Mountains through at least this week. The firework show has mostly ended as the impressive storm system has now moved on to Kansas. Some lingering moisture under northwest flow could squeeze out a few more inches in the orographically favored mountains to our north and west. We’ll see dry and cold weather on Wendesday and most of Thursday before a weak disturbance brings light snowfall towards the end of the work week.

Date: 02/01/2016

It aint over yet! The cold front which sagged south on Saturday, reversed course yesterday and gave us another extra boost of heavy snow yesterday evening and last night. Today that low will track along the CO/NM border, spinning more moisture our way under southwest flow. We will see showery periods of very heavy snow, then a break, then heavy snow again as the unstable atmosphere reacts to our mountainous terrain. Winds should remain light, with a switch from southwest to northwest flow as the low pressure tracks to the Oklahoma Panhandle, this should give one last thump of heavy snow for our zone. The rest of the week looks unsettled with 2-4” with each quick hitting storm.

Date: 01/31/2016

You can thank the central Pacific for that faint smell of pineapples as powder rides up and over your head today. The firehose of moisture pointed directly at the Elk and West Elk Mountains overnight will continue today as the storm evolves into more of a closed low, and flow swings from the northwest to the southwest. This will re-energize snow production and give us our larger, more significant push of snowfall. Model numbers vary for total snow, but this storm and its second slug of moisture looks to leave the Crested Butte backcountry with 2-4 feet of snow by Monday evening, accompanied by strong westerly winds and temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Date: 01/30/2016

A deep plume of moisture is stretched this morning from the Hawaii Islands into Colorado, packing pineapples, hula dancers, and significant snowfall for the Elk Mountains this weekend. The initial warm phase of this storm is under-performing thus far, with no new snow as of 5 a.m. An impressive band of precipitation is stretched across I-80 from San Francisco to Salt Lake City on the radar this morning. We’ll see dynamic support improve towards the latter half of the day as the jet stream sags over Colorado, and that is when the first big flakes should fly, along with increased wind speeds. The best forcing and heaviest snowfall arrive as the cold front pushes through after sunset. A deepening low moves towards the Four Corners on Sunday, with good atmospheric lift, fueling additional snowfall into early next week.

Date: 01/29/2016

A shortwave disturbance will bring a few flurries today, in advance of strong zonal flow setting up this weekend. The jet stream, laden with deep moisture, noses south across Colorado on Saturday. Flow will be out of the west-southwest, which is a favorable direction for pushing heavy snowfall across most of our forecast zone. Models continue to remain optimistic on this weekend’s storm, but aren’t coming into agreement on how big just yet. Snowfall starts in earnest around midnight tonight, with the heaviest pulse looking to crank out significant snowfall from about noon into midnight on Saturday. Look for 12” to 24” to accumulate before a lull on Sunday morning. Another pulse arrives Sunday evening. A deepening trough develops by Monday, driving continued snowy weather under less-favorable southwest flow into early next week.

Date: 01/28/2016

We’ll see some high level clouds move overhead today under warm mountain temperatures as the high pressure ridge flattens and moves east. Several weak disturbances tonight and tomorrow will bring a chance for light flurries. The jet stream, loaded with moisture from the Pacific, shifts south over Colorado on Friday night into Saturday. This should bring heavy snowfall to our mountains through Monday. We’ll get a better picture as the storm gets closer, but early model runs are hinting at storm totals reaching near or exceeding 2 feet by the end of the weekend.

Date: 01/27/2016

Strong inversions are in place this morning, with Crested Butte pooling in cold air in the negative double digits. Warm air is advecting into the mountains and temps have risen to near 20 degrees at most stations. High pressure will continue to bring calm winds, mostly clear skies, and a warming trend to our mountains today. The ridge flattens by Thursday night, issuing in moisture and a weak embedded disturbance under zonal flow on Friday. This will bring increased clouds but little in the way of snowfall. A significant Pacific trough will develop over the weekend into early next week, bringing a good chance for serious snowfall. Details to come.