Crested Butte Area

CBAC2014-15 Observations

Name:   Evan
DATE: 2014-12-29
LOCATION:  RL glades/Evans Basin
ELEVATION:  9200′ – 11,600′
ASPECT: S – SW
WEATHER: Overcast, flat light, snowing throughout most of the day mostly S-1,  calm wind.
SNOWPACK/AVALANCHE OBS:  Group skiing fun on slopes less then 30 degrees. Ski pin about 15cm or boot top.
Numerous D1-1.5 soft slab avalanches in Evans Basion from the Solstice Storm avalanche cycle. All on high 30 degree terrain facing E-SE. To far away to get more information.

Mountain Weather December 30, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/30/2014

Light snow and cold temperatures will continue today. A broad low-pressure trough is elongated across the southwest states, with an arctic airmass over Colorado. Winds remain mercifully light as the jet stream stays to our south. The arctic airmass moves east on Wednesday issuing out the cold temperatures. A closed low will begin moving across Arizona and New Mexico over the next few days, rotating moisture into southwestern Colorado under a South to Southeast flow. This pattern tends to be unfavorable for our mountains, but lets hope we see more than a few inches stack up by the end of New Year’s Day.

Red Lady

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Name: Travis Colbert
Title: Red Lady
Location: Kebler Pass Area
Date of Observation: 12/29/2014
Aspect: South East
Elevation: 12,300

Avalanches: The final (and steepest) rollover prior to the lap track released a very small slab (4-5 inches deep, 10 feet wide, ran about 20 feet).

Weather: Intermittent light snow; light but steady winds from the west. Partial clearing at times, then socked in again. Cold (8-10 degrees).

Snowpack: Snowpack was solid despite some wind transported snow in the bowl. Very soft, 2-inch unconsolidated wind slab in the bowl. Broke off a small section of the cornice with no results. Ski cut broke up the soft surface slab, but produced no significant results. All of the tracks from weekend were completely covered by the new snow and wind transported, recycled powder. Bowl skied perfectly; creamy soft powder turns all the way down. Went up for a second lap, but visibility dropped considerably at the summit. Skied fluffy powder through the glades all the way down to the road.

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Crested Butte Area

CBAC2014-15 Observations

Name: Ross
DATE: 2014-12-28
ACTIVITY:  Level One Avy Course, Tour Day
LOCATION:  Evans Basin
ELEVATION:  9200′ – 11,600′
ASPECT: S – SW
WEATHER: Overcast , snowing throughout the day mostly S1 with S2 in the afternoon,  Light wind at lower elevations, with wind picking up at higher elevations above 11,000′. Cold
SNOWPACK/AVALANCHE OBS:   In shaded areas snow is faceted at the ground and other more solar facing areas a variety of crusts exist deeper in the pack  No signs of avalanches or instabilities. Ski pen 15cm. Good skiing. Stayed away from 30 degrees and steeper with the avy class. Wind crust in open areas present from the last wind event but getting buried by the new snow.

Crested Butte Zone

CBAC2014-15 Observations

Name: Donny, Will
Date: 2014-12-28
Activity: Level One Avy Course, Tour Day
Location: Red Coon Glades
Elevation: 9200′ – 11,600′
Aspect: S – SE

Weather: Overcast to obscured skies, snowfall throughout day, periods of S2, but less than 5cm accumulation throughout day. Snow was mostly DFs with a short period of graupel.  Light wind most of the day, with moderate W/SW winds above 11,000′. -13ºC at 9200′ @ 10:30; -18ºC at 11,600′ @ 13:00

Snowpack & Avalanche Obs: Not much new to report. Dec. 13th interface still present above 10,000′.  More solar aspects present a harder crust, shaded aspects are more faceted.  Nothing new here.  Top 3cm of new snow was denser than bottom 2-3 cm due to increased winds.  No signs of avalanches or instabilities.

Crested Butte Area

CB Avalanche Center2014-15 Observations

Name: Will Dujardin
Location: Snodgrass Weather Station Pits 12-28-14
Date of Observation: 12/28/2014
Aspect: North East
Elevation: 11120

Weather: Light snow and low clouds, very light wind.

Snowpack: We dug two pits just approx. 3.5 feet deep to the ground right next to each other on slightly different slopes (30 degrees and 37 degrees) on the NE aspect just below the weather station. We isolated two blocks to test the storm snow and the persistent slab in both pits. The 18~” of storm snow sluffed away in both pits to shovel taps. The 30 degree pit we were able to get the isolated persistent slab to go with applied boot pressure, in the 37 degree pit we had the storm slab (just above the top of the shovel in photo 1) go with a single skicut to the back, like a Rutschblock test of sorts, and the persistent slab to go with a boot kick in the same spot. See attached photos to see what the ski cut did in the 37 degree pit. It seems like it’s definitely harder, but not that hard, to trigger that persistent slab, and the slab formed from the recent storms is very touchy, it could definitely knock you down or bury you in a terrain trap, and if it stepped down to the persistent slab it would result in a massive avalanche . We skied back the low angle E-SE aspects to avoid the NE avalanche problem. Sorry for the lack of technical terminology!

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Mountain Weather December 29, 2014

CB Avalanche CenterWeather

Date: 12/29/2014

A winter weather advisory was issued for our area. Last night we received light snowfall and are anticipating the snowfall to increase today. Northwest and southwest winds are converging along with a cold front and creating a band heavier snowfall in northern Colorado. This band will continue moving south today but the big question is weather all these things line up over the Elk Mountains as this system move south. If so, we’ll see the higher end of snow forecast numbers and if not, we’ll see continued light snowfall. The western portion of our zone should do ok either way with favorable orographics. We’ll see lingering snowfall on Tuesday as this weather system splits off to the south and shows some love for the San Juan Mountains. Wednesday will be drier with more weather anticipated on Thursday.

What are facets?

CB Avalanche CenterAvi Blog, Avi-Off-Season

By Zach Guy
CBAC Forecaster
If you’ve been reading our avalanche advisories lately, you’ve probably noticed we’ve been talking a lot about facets.  Last weekend, major winter storm slammed into our mountains, and we saw widespread avalanche activity, with facets being one of the major culprits.  So what is the deal with this snow grain type, how does it form, and why is it so problematic?
Facets are a sugary-like snow grain.  They glisten in the sun, bounce in your glove, and commonly make a noticeably soft or hollow layer in the snowpack.  If you look at them under a magnifying glass, they have many flat edges, hence the name facets.  
Courtesy Photo
There are several different ways that can cause snow grains to facet, but they all share the same underlying physical process.  Facetsform when water vapor moves quickly through the snowpack. Each particle gets handed off between grains, via sublimation and deposition, causing the grains to reconfigure into a more angular form.  Strong temperature differences within the snowpack cause this water vapor relay.  We can see facets form early season when the ground is quite warm, there is a shallow snowpack, and the air gets cold, especially at night.  This drives the water vapor upward through the snowpack causing it to facet, or rot out.  We also see a similar process occurring on top of the snowpack, called “near surface faceting.”  When we get warm days and cold, clear nights, the snow surface undergoes wild temperature swings, causing the same rapid water vapor movement. This process is expedited if the surface is composed of soft, low density snow, rather than stiff, hard, compacted snow.  All of these ingredients have come together this winter.  We have seen basal facets form during the early season when our snowpack was shallow.  Then, on December 1st, we got about 4″ of new, low density snow, which was followed by two weeks of warm days and cold, clear nights.  That surface snow metamorphosed into fragile, sugary grains, and we didn’t get strong winds that can sometimes destroy that layer as it is forming.  On December 13th, that near surface facet layer was buried, and it is now under the weight of all the new snow that has fallen in the past 2 weeks.
Facets form a type of layer in the snow coined as a “persistent weak layer.”  So once a layer of facets gets buried by a slab of new or windblown snow, it makes for a weakness in the snowpack on which avalanches can fail.  Worst of all, the weakness is long-lasting, so we can see avalanches fail on facet layers weeks or months after they are buried.  This means that we can see very large slabs of snow develop over the course of the winter before a facet layer might finally give out, causing a huge avalanche.  Facets have a few other nasty tricks up their sleeves.  If the layer is fairly continuous, it is so fragile that it can drive a failure very long distances across avalanche terrain.  I’ve seen avalanches fail almost a mile wide on facet layers!!  If you can get the layer to collapse on flat terrain, it can propagate up a slope and cause an avalanche to release above you.  So not only do these layers plague us for long periods of time, but they also behave in an unusual manner.  Keep this in mind in upcoming weeks and months, now that we have several facet layers buried in our snowpack.   For more information or to get daily avalanche advisories, visit www.cbavalanchecenter.org.

This is a photo of a shallow slab that propagated impressive distances on the December 13th facet layer, near Purple Palace.  Photo credit: Aaron Huckstep

Ian’s Weather Resources

CB Avalanche CenterAvi Blog, Avi-Off-Season

 Current Data

Surface:

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/
    https://avalanche.state.co.us/obs_stns/stns.php
    http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?state=CO&rawsflag=3
    Schofield SNOTEL: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/nwcc/site?sitenum=737

Upper-air soundings:

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/

Radar & Satellite:

    http://www.weathertap.com ($84/yr, great mobile website as well)

Discussions

    NWS: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=CO&prodtype=discussion
    OpenSnow: http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado
    CAIC: http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/weather/zone-forecast/
    http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.com

Forecast Models: Twisterdata.com

Top Center

NAM = 84hr 12km resolution

GFS = 384hr 27km resolution

RAP = 18hr 13km resolution

Left Side

700mb = orographic wind direction

500mb = vorticity

300mb = jet stream

Upper Right

Clickable map = one forecast image

Animated loop = all forecast images

Compare models = toggle between each model

dProg/dt = see the trend in the forecasts
Forecast Models: CAIC

    High-resolution version of the NAM model
    Graphics: http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/weather/model-forecasts/
    Points: http://avalanche.state.co.us/forecasts/weather/point-forecasts/

Forecast Models: Weatherbell.com

    Access to European model graphics and many other models. Fantastic data. $185/year