Reported Wednesday, March 7, 2012 at 6:00 AM

	Weather Forecast Today: Becoming mostly cloudy with 1-3” snow, S winds 10-20mph, high near 25. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, 2-5” snow, E winds 10-20mph, low near 10. Tomorrow: Cloudy w/ clearing in the PM, Tr-1” of snow, East winds 10-20mph, High near 30. Weather Outlook Snow showers and cooler temperatures will spread into the area today, as a closed low moves in from southern Utah. Expect snowfall to pick up this evening, with the bulk of the snow coming overnight. Moderate winds will accompany the storm with only modest snow totals. The West Elks are the favored part of our region for higher snowfall. However, the heaviest snowfall will occur in the Sangre de Cristos and Sawatch mountains. Snow will taper off Thursday with clearing into the weekend.

The avalanche danger for today is CONSIDERABLE (Level 3) on N-E-SE aspects near and above treeline. Elsewhere the danger is MODERATE (Level 2).

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

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Trend

NW-N-SE aspects at and above treeline are holding the most prevalent windslabs. Many of the local valleys like Slate river, East river, and Washington Gulch saw significant wind effects cross-loading slopes at all elevations. Triggering windslab will be especially of concern on slopes over 35 degrees.

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

AVALANCHE SIZE

Trend

Advanced facets at the bottom of the snowpack are now buried deep under layers of slabs and recent snow. Though they've gotten harder to trigger, the consequences of triggering these deep slab instabilities are high. The areas of most concern are steep shaded slopes facing NW-N-E.

In the past week we’ve seen two major storms resulting in a prolonged avalanche cycle followed by the biggest warm up of the season. Observers continue to report large avalanches from last week and over the weekend. For now, avalanche activity has subsided and the danger has eased. If snow totals and wind materialize from this storm, we may see a rise in danger by tomorrow morning.

The recent warm days and strong radiation have formed crusts on all but the most shaded slopes near and below treeline. These slick crusts will form a poor bond with the incoming snow. While it may have felt like spring this week, we are still dealing with a winter snowpack. The warm temperatures did not have a huge affect below the surface layers. Persistent facets exist on many slopes. Recent large avalanches running on the ground are evidence that the well-developed facets could have high consequences, if triggered. Meanwhile, wind slabs remain a presence from last week’s strong winds. These slabs are still touchy and reactive.