Reported Monday, December 27, 2010 at 6:10 AM

	Weather Forecast Today: Partly cloudy, trace to 1” possible, moderate northwest winds 15-20 mph and highs in the upper 20’s Tonight: Mostly clear, light winds and lows in the single digits. Tomorrow: Mostly clear, light winds with higher gusts in the high country and highs in the upper 20’s. Weather Outlook The recent front that brought 2-5” of new snow to our mountains will move east today leaving only lingering showers and clouds until mid week. Another deep trough should move over head on Wednesday bringing snowfall through Thursday. This next system will move in on a southwest flow and has a lot of moisture and cold air. This recipe is good for our mountains and may bring significant snowfall. By Friday we should see cold temperatures ushered in behind the front as the flow switches back to northwest.

MODERATE (Level 2) on all aspects and elevations.

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

AVALANCHE SIZE

Trend

Lingering deep slab instability is going to be the main concern. The fact that avalanches may only occur on isolated terrain features makes it worth advising backcountry travelers to use extra caution on steep terrain especially slopes with multiple trigger points or a variable snowpack.

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

AVALANCHE SIZE

Trend

As mentioned, surface sluffing could be significant today and need to be factored into the terrain decision making process. In addition, targeted observations should be used when trying to determine if newly formed wind slabs are present.

Although we had a few inches of new snow the main concern is still deeper in the snowpack. Yesterday there was a snowmobile triggered avalanche in the Kebler area up Robinson Basin after several high marks on steep terrain. Overall there is a strong mid pack but areas of weaker snow are still lurking around rock outcroppings and hollow tree areas particularly on steep isolated terrain features. Although avalanches may be difficult to initiate, once it cracks the slabs may be surprisingly larger, wider and deeper then expected. Mother Nature is not screaming avalanche hazard but the snowpack is whispering “use extra caution”. The snowpack near and above treeline is still variable and may only need a person to hit the right spot to wake up the weak layers in the snowpack and trigger an avalanche. In addition to the deeper weak layers we can expect high speed sluffing on steep slopes on all aspects. These sluff may not be confined to only the new snow but actually entrench a significant amount of surface snow. Finally, newly formed wind slabs may be found near and above treeline on lee aspects. These slabs could be very reactive to human triggering.