Reported Saturday, January 30, 2010 at 5:20 AM

Weather Forecast

Today:
High clouds, calm winds and highs in the upper 30's in CB and in the 20's in Gunnison.

Tonight:
Mostly cloudy, calm winds and lows in the upper teens in CB and the single digits in Gunnison.

Tomorrow:
Mostly cloudy, trace possible, southwest winds 5-15 mph and Highs in the 30's

Weather Outlook

Our mountain have seen spring like weather the last couple of days but the blue skies are going to turn gray today. We can expect high clouds to roll in and thicken in front of the next wave of moisture. We may see some light snow Sunday but there is limited moisture and fairly stable air associated with this next front. Temperatures will stay warm even at night with the cloud cover trapping that warm air in the valleys. Long term forecast shows stable weather and sunny skies.

Danger Rating

Elevated Caution

Overall MODERATE.

Avalanche Problem #1

Deep Slabs  
Moderate
LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING
  
Large
AVALANCHE SIZE
  
Decreasing Danger
Trend

The lack of natural avalanches is going to lower the danger rating but the possibility of human triggered avalanches remains very possible.

In the Backcountry

The natural avalanche cycle has begun to taper but the stability is far from good. Our snowpack seems to be plagued with a reactive layer that is not healing very quickly especially on sunny aspects. Even though we may not see naturals today the possibility of human triggered slides remains quite possible particularly on steeper terrain with trigger points such as shallow areas around trees and rocks. Some of these trigger points may not be visible from the surface but may propagate large distances once an avalanche is initiated. Also it may not be the first person on a slope that finds that sweet spot or deficit zone. Remote avalanches were still occurring yesterday which is a big sign that predicting the stability of a slope could be difficult. Time will help the snowpack gain strength but the weak layer is buried deep enough that the direct weather effects are not affecting the bonding characteristics very quickly which means we may still have an unstbale situation in our snowpack.

Travel Advisory

With reports of human triggered and remote triggered slides occurring it is going to be important to access the slope very carefully as well as stopping in safer areas away from any run outs. Think about the terrain you will be traveling through and ask yourself if there is a safe place to regroup. If not, is that terrain the right choice for the current avalanche conditions?

Reported by: Alan