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Reported Saturday, March 28, 2009 at 6:00 AM
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Weather Forecast
Today: Mostly Clear, winds Northwest 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph up high, High temperatures in CB and Gunnison in the upper 30's
Tonight: Mostly Clear, winds west, Northwest 5-10 mph, Low temperatures in CB and Gunnison in the low teens.
Tomorrow: Partly turning mostly cloudy, southwest winds 10-20 mph gusts in the 40 mph range, High Temperatures in CB and Gunnison in the mid 40's.
Weather Outlook
Currently we are under a dry Northwest flow with an approaching storm. We should see a mostly clear day today with warm temperatures. Later today through tomorrow clouds will begin to build and winds should pick up significantly in front of the approaching storm. By Sunday afternoon the northern trough begins to dig south delivering a strong west, southwest flow. We will have a good shot for snow on Sunday evening with some continued unsettled weather with snow showers through mid week as we generally remain in the widening trough. Temperatures will be generally lower than normal this week with high winds beginning Sunday.
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Danger Rating
Above Tree Line: MODERATE with pockets of CONSIDERABLE on Steep starting zones on North through Southeast aspects. Near and Below Tree Line: MODERATE
Avalanche Problem #1
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Wind slabs from the recent storm could still be lingering and will need some time to settle and adjust. There were some differing layers within the storm snow that could cause shallow slabs.
Avalanche Problem #2
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The new snow could get wet quickly this afternoon on southerly aspects and we could see the potential to trigger loose wet slides in the pm.
In the Backcountry
Coming out of a significant winter storm the snowpack is quickly gaining strength. Yesterday the snowpack settled well with some mild temperatures and strong solar radiation. No reports of significant avalanche activity besides some loose snow avalanches starting on steep rolls on western aspects. Solar radiation yesterday began heating the snow surface and you can expect thin sun crusts on many southerly aspects this morning. A dry winter snowpack still exists on north, west, and east aspects, especially above tree line. The snow pack will still need time to adjust to the large load we just recently received. Winds did continue to transport snow onto lee aspects yesterday. Slab avalanches are still possible and even probable in some locations today. With solar radiation and above freezing temps today we could see some wet loose slides on southerlies as the new snow gets wet.
Travel Advisory
Back country travelers will need to keep their eyes open today and be aware of unstable snow. Different areas, elevations, & aspects will reveal differing conditions and stability so do not assume anything from a previous day’s tour. The most suspect areas will be above tree line on Lee aspects. Be aware of steep start zones just below ridge tops and cornices today. Ease into these areas and make a plan if failure occurs. Be heads up on southerly aspects in the PM as wet slides will be possible.
Reported by: Rankin
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