Reported Monday, February 4, 2008 at 7:10 AM

	Weather Forecast Today: Cloudy with snow, and additional 4"-6" possible. Winds SW becoming NW by tonight 10-15 mph, gusts to 25. High temps around 20 in Crested Butte and slightly colder in Gunnison. Tonight: Mostly Cloudy, snow 1"-3" possible. NW winds 10-15 mph, gusts to 20. Low temps in Crested Butte & Gunnison around 0. Tomorrow: Partly cloudy, NW winds 10-15 mph, high temps in Crested Butte & Gunnison around 15. Weather Outlook The trough axis to our West moves into Colorado later today, switching us to a colder Northwest flow by tonight. Look for snowfall to taper off in intensity a bit today from yesterday's pounding, but continue to be strong enough to accumulate through mid-afternoon. With lots of moisture and instability still evident in the models, and cold air from a Northerly flow, the potential for some good orographics will continue to wring snowfall out over our deep mountain areas through Tuesday morning. Lots of embedded disturbances within this flow looks to keep us in a pattern of colder temperatures and smaller bursts of snowfall throughout mid-week.

HIGH on N-NE-E aspects near and above treeline and CONSIDERABLE everywhere else. If snowfall exceeds forecasted amounts today look for the danger to continue to rise to overall HIGH by this evening.

LIKELIHOOD OF TRIGGERING

AVALANCHE SIZE

Trend

And it continues... Recent storm snow totals around the valley include 20” at Schofield Pass and about 16” in town and at the ski area. This new load has fallen on a snowpack that is trying to rapidly adjust to a recent cycle of continued loading. Snowpit observations over the past few days have revealed low density snow and multiple weak layers within the upper part of our snowpack, and now those areas have another heavy and dense new load to deal with. It will take time for these layers to adjust, and in the meantime things will be very tender and reactive to any additional weight. With transportable wind speeds from the Southwest consistent throughout the night, and more snowfall predicted through sunset today, areas with fresh windloading will be likely to avalanche, either naturally or triggered. Other areas, that now also have a significant amount of new snow will also be sensitive and reactive to triggers, and the weight of a backcountry traveler may be all it takes to initiate an avalanche. Instabilities are mostly within the top 1 meter of the snowpack, but there are still some deeper persistent weak layers of concern. Today, look for triggered avalanches to possibly step-down into deeper weak layers and create larger more destructive slides. Areas with shallower snow, and previous slide activity this season will most likely avalanche again.